First, the global mineral exploration investment is the first to pick up after 2012. The latest data released by SPG shows that the global metal mineral exploration investment in 2017 was 7.95 billion US dollars, up 14% year-on-year (Figure 1). This data confirms the judgment that the mineral exploration market has turned from a downturn to a recovery. From 1991 to 2017, the global metal mineral exploration investment experienced two major cyclical fluctuations. The first cyclical fluctuations were roughly from 1991 to 2002. After 1991, global metal mineral exploration investment entered a growth stage, reaching a peak of US$4.568 billion in 1997, with an average annual growth rate of 13.3%; affected by the 1997 Asian financial crisis, minerals The survey investment has experienced a continuous decline for 5 years, with an average annual decline of 16.6%, and fell to 2.05 billion US dollars in 2002, a drop of 60.5% compared with the 1997 peak. The second cyclical fluctuation is roughly from 2003 to the present. After 2002, the investment in mineral exploration has grown rapidly. By 2012, it reached the peak of US$20.526 billion, with an average annual growth rate of 30.4%. During the period, it was affected by the international financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis. In 2009, mineral exploration investment dropped sharply by 36.1%, but then quickly adjusted back, maintaining the overall trend of sustained growth; after 2012, global mineral exploration investment began to fall sharply, and the average annual decline in 2016 was 23.8%. In 2017, the global mineral exploration investment has been upgraded from a downward trend, which means that the new round of rising cycle of mineral exploration is still at a low level and still needs further observation. (figure 1) In 2017, global mineral exploration investment rebounded moderately with the increase in metal prices. Since the beginning of 2016, the S&P Global Metals Index has fluctuated from a sustained downward trend, especially since the price index continued to rise in the second half of 2016, and entered the upside after a moderate correction in the first half of 2017 (Figure 2). Copper metal prices rose from US$4,600/ton in October 2016 to US$6,600/ton in October 2017, up 43.4% year-on-year; gold prices rose at the end of 2015, and volatility in 2017, the average price increased by 4 The price of zinc metal has risen strongly since the beginning of 2016. After a brief correction in 2017, it has resumed its upward trend. As of the beginning of October, the price reached 3297.5 US dollars/ton, a record high in the past 10 years, up 113.3% from the beginning of 2016. As metal prices rose strongly and the market environment improved, market investors reconsidered the mining industry as an investment option and the level of investment rebounded. In particular, the investment of primary exploration companies increased by 23% year-on-year. The exploration investment of large-scale production companies increased by 17% year-on-year, and it is still the main force for mineral exploration investment. The number of companies investing in mineral exploration continues to decrease. Despite improvements in the exploration market environment, the downward pressure on the mining industry has caused some companies to stop investing in mineral exploration. The number of companies conducting mineral exploration activities decreased from 1,580 in 2016 to 1,535 in 2017, a slight decrease of 3%. Compared with the peak in 2012, the number is reduced by 40%. Considering that some companies that did not invest in surveys resumed their exploration activities this year, it is expected that the number of mineral exploration companies will increase in 2018. Gold exploration is still a hot mineral of mineral exploration. According to statistics, from 2001 to 2015, gold exploration surveys accounted for an average of 44.6% of the total investment in global metal mineral exploration; in 2016, global gold exploration investment was 3.297 billion US dollars, accounting for 47.9%; in 2017, gold exploration investment was 4,050 million. The US dollar, which accounted for 50.9% of the total, is still the largest mineral input for mineral exploration. Copper mine is the second largest hot metal mineral in the world after gold. In 2016, the global copper exploration survey invested 1.507 billion US dollars, accounting for 21.9% of the total investment in metal mineral exploration. In 2017, the exploration of copper mines was 1.649 billion US dollars, accounting for 20.7%. In 2017, zinc mine exploration investment was 489 million US dollars, accounting for 6.2%; uranium exploration investment was 256 million US dollars, accounting for 3.2%; nickel ore exploration investment was 245 million US dollars, accounting for 3.1% (Figure 3). Latin America leads the global mineral exploration. The mineralization conditions in Latin America are superior and the politics are relatively stable, attracting more investment in mineral exploration. In 2017, Latin America's mineral exploration investment was 2.348 billion US dollars, up 20% year-on-year, accounting for 30.0% of global mineral exploration investment; Canada mineral exploration investment was 1.101 billion US dollars, accounting for 13.8%; African mineral exploration investment was 1.88 billion US dollars, accounting for 13.7%; Australian mineral exploration investment was 1.078 billion US dollars, accounting for 13.6%. Grassroots exploration activities continued to be sluggish. In 2017, the investment in mining exploration accounted for 37%, the feasibility study investment accounted for 36%, and grassroots exploration investment accounted for 27%. The exploration investment in the mining area exceeded the feasibility study input and the grassroots exploration investment, which was the first time in the past 10 years. Since 2013, primary survey investment has decreased significantly. In the past 18 months, the mineral exploration market has recovered, only to slow down the decline in the proportion of grassroots survey inputs. This reflects the fact that most producers focus their exploration efforts on mine exploration in order to avoid risks. Second, China's mineral exploration investment has weakened its global contribution. Considering that SPG's statistics are mainly from mining companies, the statistical channels are relatively simple. The statistical data underestimates the actual mineral exploration investment in China, using the statistics of the Ministry of Land and Resources. China's mineral exploration input data has revised the SPG data. In order to facilitate the comparison, the mineral exploration investment in China was counted according to the minerals covered by SPG. At the same time, according to the national statistical bureau, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was converted into minerals in US dollars. In recent years, China's mineral exploration investment changes are basically in sync with global trends. From the changes in investment from 1991 to 2017, compared with the global and Australia, Canada, the United States and other countries, the process of metal mineral exploration investment changes in China before 2003. However, after 2003-2005, China's mineral exploration investment changes are more consistent with global investment trends (Figure 4). This shows that China's mineral exploration activities are affected by the factors of domestic social and economic development, and are increasingly affected by the factors of international social and economic development. The integration of China's mineral exploration with the world is deepening. The change characteristics of China's mineral exploration investment has a great relationship with China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). China officially joined the WTO in December 2001. According to the commitment of joining the WTO, China has expanded its opening up in the fields of industry, agriculture and service industry year by year, and fulfilled all its commitments in 2010. China's economic ties with the global economy are more active and close. Affected by the deepening of economic integration, the interaction between China and the world in the field of mineral exploration is also becoming increasingly significant. Especially after 2006, China's mineral exploration investment changes are basically in line with the global trend, although the fluctuations are much more gradual than global fluctuations. From 2013 to 2016, the annual average survey of mineral exploration in the world decreased by 23.0%, and the average annual decline in China was 14.4%. In the past two years, China’s share of global mineral exploration investment has declined. From 1991 to 2005, China's mineral exploration investment accounted for 3% to 6% of the global share, with an average ratio of less than 4.5%. After 2006, China's mineral exploration investment accounted for a rapid increase in global share, reaching 19.3% in 2009. Although there has been a decrease, but after the global mineral exploration investment continued to decline after 2012, China's mineral exploration investment has increased its global share, increasing to 21.6% by 2015. Figure 5 shows that China has surpassed the traditional mineral exploration countries such as Australia, Canada, and the United States, and has touched the global mineral exploration pattern dominated by Latin America, North America, and Australia. With the continued downturn in China's mineral exploration market, the proportion of China's mineral exploration investment in 2016 fell to 19.0%. In 2017, China's mineral exploration investment is expected to continue to decline, but the decline will be significantly narrowed, accounting for a further decline in the global proportion. From 2009 to 2017, China's survey investment accounted for an average of 17.5%, significantly higher than Canada, Australia and the United States. This shows that while China has become a major consumer of mineral resources in the world, China has also become a global mineral exploration country driven by the supply and demand of mineral resources. It should be pointed out that in the downturn of the mining industry, a large part of China's mineral exploration investment comes from central and local financial funds, and Canada, Australia and the United States mainly have significant differences in corporate investment. In 2016, China's mineral exploration investment accounted for only 55.8% of the total investment. The central and local financial investment played an important role in stabilizing China's mineral exploration market. Prospects and Suggestions for Global Mineral Exploration In July 2017, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest forecast of the World Economic Outlook: the economic recovery is stabilizing, with an expected growth of 3.5% in 2017 and 3.6% in 2018. The US growth forecast is lower than earlier expectations; Japan, especially the Eurozone, has a solid economic growth momentum; China's growth forecast has been raised. However, from a global perspective, it is difficult for the world to experience an economy similar to China's rapid industrialization and urbanization from 2003 to 2012 in the short term. The demand for mineral resources is unlikely to achieve substantial growth in the short term. It is generally expected that the global mineral exploration market in 2018 will continue its moderate recovery in 2017. In recent years, China's GDP growth rate has continued to decline, but the decline has been narrowing year by year, and L-shaped growth has gradually shifted from “one vertical†to “one horizontalâ€. With the domestic economic growth shift and economic restructuring, the driving force of mineral resource consumption and mining has undergone a historic change. First, the development of resource-intensive industries has gradually given way to technology-intensive manufacturing industries; second, the growth rate of infrastructure construction and housing construction has continued to decline; third, the construction of ecological civilization has been further advanced, and the mining and consumption policies of mineral resources have tightened. Under this background, China's total consumption of mineral resources has undergone a turning point, and the differentiation of different minerals has changed from rapid growth in the past to slow growth, and there is a tendency to stabilize at a high level. Under the situation of stable internal stability, it is expected that China's mineral exploration market will enter a range of moderate fluctuations and corrections in 2018. Domestic lags behind the recovery of global mineral exploration, which may include multiple aspects. The ecological environmental protection policy has been tightened day by day. The original mineral exploration blocks in the ecologically sensitive areas have gradually withdrawn, and the newly added mineral exploration blocks have been restricted, and the number of exploration rights has shown a downward trend. Under the situation that international mineral products prices are at a low level, domestic mining companies are more inclined to choose foreign M&A mines to increase their resource reserves. As the global mineral exploration picks up, it is recommended that relevant government departments in China strengthen research and respond actively. First, according to changes in supply and demand structure, guide the adjustment of mineral resources to explore the layout of minerals; second, according to the importance of minerals and supply and demand situation, rationally arrange mineral resources surveys of various ecological functional areas; third, take the “Belt and Road†initiative as the starting point. Strengthen the layout of overseas mineral exploration and development, and promote international cooperation in the exploration and development of mineral resources in China. (Author: YANG Jian-feng, Maarten, Wang Yao, Zhang Cuiguang)
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