Abstract: It is expected that the growth rate of fixed asset investment and the growth rate of industrial added value of major macroeconomic indicators related to the machinery industry in the second quarter will return to normal. The machinery industry will be in the middle of the whole macroeconomic industrial chain, and there will be certain fluctuations relative to macroeconomics. The lag, the data of the first two months of 2010, shows that the machinery industry is still in the recovery channel, and it is expected that the domestic economy will become normalized in the future, and the normal growth rate of the machinery industry should be around 20%.
Data from the first two months of 2010 showed that the growth rate of internal and external demand in the machinery industry climbed as expected, and the main sub-sectors of construction machinery, machine tools, electrical and electrical and heavy mining machinery also showed a pattern of sequential recovery. Looking forward to the second quarter, we judge that the domestic economy will gradually return to normalization after the 2008-2009 ups and downs, and the growth rate of the machinery industry will return to the normal area of ​​about 20%. Among the major sub-sectors, although the growth rate of the first-quarter construction machinery in the second quarter has declined from the first quarter, it will still reach more than 30%, and the annual growth rate will be around 25%. The subsequent recovery of machine tools will continue to rise in the second quarter. Trends; followed by the recovery of electrical appliances recommended focus on smart grid, UHV and nuclear power and other fast-growing areas; heavy mining machinery most lag behind the economic recovery is expected to show a clear recovery trend in the second quarter.
The growth rate of the machinery industry in the second quarter may moderately fall
It is expected that the growth rate of fixed asset investment and the growth rate of industrial added value of major macroeconomic indicators related to the machinery industry in the second quarter will return to normal. The machinery industry will be in the middle of the entire macroeconomic industrial chain, which will be delayed relative to macroeconomic fluctuations. According to the data of the first two months of 2010, the machinery industry is still in the recovery channel. It is expected that the domestic economy will become normalized in the future, and the normal growth rate of the machinery industry should be around 20%.
Construction machinery will maintain a relatively fast growth rate in the second quarter
As the construction machinery is still in the bottom pick-up period in the second quarter of 2009, we expect the growth rate of construction machinery in the second quarter of this year to be lower than that in the first quarter, but it will maintain a high growth rate of more than 30%. 25% or so.
Machine tools are expected to continue the recovery trend
The machine tool industry did not recover significantly until the fourth quarter of 2009, and its recovery period lags behind that of construction machinery. From the feedback of enterprises, with the expansion of production capacity of automobile manufacturers and construction machinery manufacturers, the orders of machine tool enterprises are gradually increasing. It is expected that the machine tool industry will continue the previous recovery trend in the second quarter, and the annual sales of the industry will increase by about 20%.
Heavy mining machinery demand is expected to recover
The downstream users of heavy mining machinery, steel, coal, electricity and so on, are relatively upstream of the entire economic industrial chain, and the response to the economic recovery is the most lagging. In the first quarter of this year, orders for heavy mining machinery enterprises showed signs of recovery. We expect the demand for heavy mining machinery in the second quarter to be expected. restore.
Electrical and electrical attention to growth areas
Through previous research, we learned that the management attaches great importance to the construction of domestic smart grid. Although the investment amount announced by State Grid Corporation in 2010 has declined year-on-year, if the UHV construction investment and smart grid construction investment are taken into account, the actual investment in the future will still be Will maintain about 15% growth. In the future, the electrical and electronic industry will focus on nuclear power construction in UHV construction, energy conservation and environmental protection, smart grids and new energy.
Data from the first two months of 2010 showed that the growth rate of internal and external demand in the machinery industry climbed as expected, and the main sub-sectors of construction machinery, machine tools, electrical and electrical and heavy mining machinery also showed a pattern of sequential recovery. Looking forward to the second quarter, we judge that the domestic economy will gradually return to normalization after the 2008-2009 ups and downs, and the growth rate of the machinery industry will return to the normal area of ​​about 20%. Among the major sub-sectors, although the growth rate of the first-quarter construction machinery in the second quarter has declined from the first quarter, it will still reach more than 30%, and the annual growth rate will be around 25%. The subsequent recovery of machine tools will continue to rise in the second quarter. Trends; followed by the recovery of electrical appliances recommended focus on smart grid, UHV and nuclear power and other fast-growing areas; heavy mining machinery most lag behind the economic recovery is expected to show a clear recovery trend in the second quarter.
The growth rate of the machinery industry in the second quarter may moderately fall
It is expected that the growth rate of fixed asset investment and the growth rate of industrial added value of major macroeconomic indicators related to the machinery industry in the second quarter will return to normal. The machinery industry will be in the middle of the entire macroeconomic industrial chain, which will be delayed relative to macroeconomic fluctuations. According to the data of the first two months of 2010, the machinery industry is still in the recovery channel. It is expected that the domestic economy will become normalized in the future, and the normal growth rate of the machinery industry should be around 20%.
Construction machinery will maintain a relatively fast growth rate in the second quarter
As the construction machinery is still in the bottom pick-up period in the second quarter of 2009, we expect the growth rate of construction machinery in the second quarter of this year to be lower than that in the first quarter, but it will maintain a high growth rate of more than 30%. 25% or so.
Machine tools are expected to continue the recovery trend
The machine tool industry did not recover significantly until the fourth quarter of 2009, and its recovery period lags behind that of construction machinery. From the feedback of enterprises, with the expansion of production capacity of automobile manufacturers and construction machinery manufacturers, the orders of machine tool enterprises are gradually increasing. It is expected that the machine tool industry will continue the previous recovery trend in the second quarter, and the annual sales of the industry will increase by about 20%.
Heavy mining machinery demand is expected to recover
The downstream users of heavy mining machinery, steel, coal, electricity and so on, are relatively upstream of the entire economic industrial chain, and the response to the economic recovery is the most lagging. In the first quarter of this year, orders for heavy mining machinery enterprises showed signs of recovery. We expect the demand for heavy mining machinery in the second quarter to be expected. restore.
Electrical and electrical attention to growth areas
Through previous research, we learned that the management attaches great importance to the construction of domestic smart grid. Although the investment amount announced by State Grid Corporation in 2010 has declined year-on-year, if the UHV construction investment and smart grid construction investment are taken into account, the actual investment in the future will still be Will maintain about 15% growth. In the future, the electrical and electronic industry will focus on nuclear power construction in UHV construction, energy conservation and environmental protection, smart grids and new energy.
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