A few days ago, according to a report released by HSBC, the PMI will be below the critical point of 50% in July, which is the first time PMI has fallen below 50% in a year. Does this mean that the economy is in danger of a hard landing? Qu Hongbin, chief economist at HSBC China, denied this view. He believes that the current economy is indeed slowing down. The economic growth rate in the fourth quarter may fall below 9%, but it is expected that China will be around 9% for the whole year and the consumer price (CPI) will be around 5%. In the report released by the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, 25 institutions predicted that the GDP growth rate of GDP in the third quarter was 9.3%, which was lower than the 9.5% in the second quarter. However, the simple average figure for CPI in the third quarter was 5.7%, which was the same as the year-on-year growth rate in the second quarter. This reflects the fact that inflationary pressures continue to exist when the current economic growth rate is slowing down. The reporter was informed that at the State Council symposium held in early July, relevant experts had little objection to the steady and rapid growth of the economy in the second half of the year. However, there have been differences in the judgment of the price situation. One argument is that prices may rise further in the second half of the year; another argument is that price increases may fall. To this end, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting on July 22 to determine that the overall level of stable prices will remain the primary task of macroeconomic regulation and control in the next phase, continue to strengthen and improve macroeconomic regulation, implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and promote The economy is developing steadily and rapidly, and the society is harmonious and stable. Economic growth in the third quarter is still fast According to the PMI preview report released by HSBC in July, the initial value of China's PMI in July was 48.9%, which was the first time since July 2010, which was below 50%, the lowest level in 28 months. The manufacturing output index was 47.2%, down 2.6% from June's 49.8%, which was also the biggest monthly decline since March 2009. Qu Hongbin told reporters that under normal circumstances, the actual PMI value and the initial value difference between 0.5% and 0.6%, according to this judgment, China's PMI should be lower than 50% in July this year, which shows that the manufacturing situation in the next three months is not Optimistic, especially the order situation. “In fact, the PMI index has been declining in recent months, which shows that the economic growth is slowing down,†he said. Qu Hongbin believes that China’s economic growth rate in the third quarter of this year was around 9%, and in the fourth quarter it was 8.5%, and the economic growth rate continued to fall. However, given that the annual growth rate is higher than the government's 8% target, it is not necessary to worry about the economic downturn. Most institutions believe that the economy will not land hard. According to Langrun’s forecast released by Peking University on July 22, 25 institutions, except China Merchants Securities, believe that the economic growth rate in the third quarter is only 8.8%, and the rest believe that the economic growth rate is not less than 9%. 25 institutions expect an average economy in the third quarter. The growth rate was 9.3% and remained high. Peking University China Economic Research Center believes that the economic growth rate in the third quarter is 9.2%. Song Guoqing, director of the center, judged that China's annual economic growth rate in 2011 was 9.3%. Lu Zhengwei, chief analyst of Industrial Bank, believes that July is a period of seasonal decline in PMI. From July 2005 to July 2010, the PMI total index fell by an average of 1.3 percentage points. The official PMI released by China in July 2011 is likely to be around 50.2%, a slight decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. It is difficult to relax the regulation. Considering that the economic growth rate is still growing rapidly, the inflationary pressure has not been greatly reduced. It is expected that the regulation will not be relaxed in the second half of the year. The reporter was informed that at the many expert consultation meetings held by the State Council in early July, different experts even gave conclusions that prices were different in the second half of the year. That is to say, one thinks that the price of the whole year is “previously high and then lowâ€, and the other is considered to be “previous high and highâ€. Lian Ping believes that the overall growth rate of prices will fall in the second half of the year, but the decline is limited. It is expected that the annual price increase will be around 5.2%, and the price increase in July-September will be between 5.9% and 6.3%. Considering that the current relationship between “price reduction†and “guarantee growth†is to be balanced, monetary policy will maintain the overall tone of “stableâ€. As the interest rate level has exceeded the median of the past decade, there are factors such as the further increase in the financing costs of SMEs. “It is expected that the second half of the year will be cautious about raising interest rates,†Lian Ping said at the recent Bank of Communications report. The country will announce the July CPI data on August 9. Lu political commissar believes that the CPI increase in July may be 6.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. According to a report released by Peking University, except for 9 of the 25 institutions, the others expect the price in the third quarter to be no lower than the second quarter. The Central Political Bureau recently held a meeting on July 22, proposing that the next stage should insist on the overall level of price stability as the primary task of macroeconomic regulation and control, accelerate the transformation of economic development mode, continue to strengthen and improve macroeconomic regulation, and implement a proactive fiscal policy and A sound monetary policy. Qu Hongbin pointed out that it is not impossible for China to continue to maintain a higher speed. The key lies in whether it can tolerate higher inflation and trigger large loans on the basis of large-scale investment. "So if you put the economic growth rate between 8% and 9%, even if it is a lot slower than in the past, but the inflation pressure is reduced, in fact, this is nothing bad," he said.
Non-standard screws refer to screws that are not manufactured according to the unified industrial standards and specifications issued by the state, but are designed and manufactured according to their own needs. The specification of non-standard Screw is not within the national standard, and its appearance or performance is not within the national equipment product catalog. It is a special size, and is generally used for the application of less parts.
Non-Standard Custom Bolts,Non Standard Custom Bolts,Non-Standard Customized Bolt,Non Standard Customized Bolt
Jiangsu Jiajie Special Screw Co., Ltd , https://www.jiajienuts.com