Abstract The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said yesterday that the economic growth rate in the third quarter will fall below 7%, which is expected to be around 6.9%, but it is expected to grow by about 7% throughout the year. The Institute of Financial and Economic Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicted in the third quarter economic situation analysis report released yesterday that the four seasons are assumed...
The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said yesterday that the economic growth rate in the third quarter will fall below 7%, which is expected to be around 6.9%, but it is expected to grow by about 7% throughout the year. The Institute of Financial and Economic Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicted in the third quarter economic situation analysis report released yesterday that it is assumed that the fluctuation of the international financial market in the fourth quarter will not cause systemic risks, and the CPI in the third quarter of 2015 is expected to rise by about 1.9%. GDP increased by 6.9%; in the fourth quarter of 2015, CPI rose by about 1.8%, GDP increased by 6.9%; annual CPI rose by about 1.6%, and GDP increased by about 7.0%.
The report said that China's current monetary policy is facing a dilemma. On the one hand, the current unfavorable factors such as weak domestic demand, intensified deflationary pressures, and negative export growth make it necessary for the central bank to further cut interest rates and lower the value of the renminbi, but this may lead to capital outflows and bring greater depreciation pressure on the renminbi. On the other hand, if the exchange rate is overvalued, the central bank must intervene in the foreign exchange market to cope with capital outflows and sell foreign exchange, resulting in passive tightening of domestic liquidity, which in turn requires monetary policy to offset the tightening effect of the decline in foreign exchange holdings.
Wang Hongwei, a researcher at the Institute of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, called for the need to be highly vigilant about the impact of the external impact of the international financial market on China's economic and financial stability, to face the objective laws of economic slowdown, and to highlight defensive macroeconomic policies. Anti-risk and steady growth are effectively combined to firmly hold the bottom line where regional and systemic risks do not occur.
Wang Hongying told the Beijing News reporter that the so-called defensive macro policy is not only to prevent financial risks, to stabilize the foreign exchange market and the stock market, but also to prevent deflation, to launch reform measures that can guarantee price increases, and to increase education and innovation. Support efforts to prevent a decline in the growth rate of all factors.
Those predictions about GDP are 7.2%
Chinese Academy of Sciences: On January 23, 2015, the Chinese Academy of Sciences released the "2015 China Economic Forecast and Outlook" report, which is expected to grow at a rate of 7.2%.
7.1%
World Bank: At the beginning of July 2015, the China Economic Newsletter released by the World Bank predicted that China's economic growth rate is expected to be 7.1% in 2015.
7%
Bank of China: On September 23, 2015, the Bank of China International Finance Institute released the “Financial and Financial Outlook for the Fourth Quarter of 2015â€, which predicted that the annual GDP growth rate would be 7%.
7%
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: On September 28, 2015, the third quarter economic situation analysis report released by the Institute of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicted that the annual GDP growth rate would be around 7%.
6.8%
IMF: In mid-August 2015, the IMF released its annual economic assessment report for China: The actual GDP growth rate is expected to be 6.8% in 2015.
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