Renewable energy "Great Leap Forward" is difficult

International Energy Newsletter: Editor's Note: For the industries surrounding solar power generation, the introduction of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development” is an amendment to the current development direction of the solar power industry. There is no doubt that it is extremely Encourage the industry to move from a single large-scale power plant model to a diversified and small-scale distribution, from single photovoltaics to photovoltaics, to both light and heat. The introduction of this plan will also be seen as a positive signal for the upgrading of China's solar power industry from extensive to intensified.

View: Real-time Quotes for the New Energy Concept Sector Recently, according to relevant media reports, the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development” (referred to as “Planning”) is about to come out. The target of solar power generation proposed in the "Plan" is to reach 10 million kilowatts by 2015 and 50 million kilowatts by 2020. "Planning" also proposes that by the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", the installed capacity of solar roofs will reach 3 million kilowatts, and by 2020 it will reach 25 million kilowatts. In addition, of 2015's installed capacity of 10 million kilowatts, photovoltaics are 9 million kilowatts, which encourages solar thermal power generation to achieve a target of 1 million kilowatts. In addition, the area for solar water heaters to be promoted is to reach 400 million square meters.

"The introduction of the "Plan" is an important part of the overall development of China's energy industry. The starting point for development is basically in line with the current status of China's energy industry development." Song Liang, analyst at the China Central Business Center for Circulation Productivity, interviewed by the "International Finance" reporter That is to say.

According to data from the energy industry, China has become the second largest energy consumer in the world, and will surpass the United States as the world’s largest energy consumer within three to five years. As the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide, although China's per capita emission level is still only 1/4 of the United States and 1/2 of Japan, China will face increasing international pressure. Vigorously developing new energy industries will be one of the major breakthroughs China has made in solving energy and environmental problems and fulfilling its commitment to the international community.

Some analysts pointed out that at present, there are two “plain injuries” in the development of China’s energy industry: one is that China’s energy supply is in short supply, the energy distribution is characterized by multiple coals, lack of oil, and low gas, and coal accounts for a high proportion of energy use, accounting for approximately About 70%; the other is that China's energy resources and energy demand are in reverse distribution, more than 80% of coal, hydropower and wind energy are distributed in the northwestern region, while energy demand is mostly concentrated in the southeastern region, and the long-distance transport pattern of energy in the future is difficult to change. .

The reporter learned from people in the industry that the overall planning of the energy industry has mainly achieved two goals: First, gradually reduce the proportion of fossil energy, increase the proportion of new carbon-free energy, and finally achieve new energy sources as the main form of energy. This is the main goal; Through the “West-to-East Electricity Transmission Project” and other projects to speed up the transfer of energy to the southeastern region, at the same time the use of new energy industries to achieve diversification of energy supply in the economically developed regions of the southeast, reduce external dependence, fundamentally solve the uneven regional distribution of energy Congenital contradiction.

“In the promotion of new energy industry development, we should accelerate the support and cultivation of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, especially the downstream market for new energy, and actively encourage the development of wind power, solar energy, hydropower, nuclear power, tides, biological power generation, etc. In various forms of power development, we will vigorously promote large-scale development of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic power stations in areas with advantageous resource endowments, and at the same time gradually promote the development of new energy industries from low-tech and single-development models to high-tech and diversified development. The direction of the model development.” Song Liang said that based on the achievements of the past five years, the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” will continue to comprehensively promote the adjustment and development of the energy industry and further increase the proportion of new energy in total energy consumption.

In recent years, the domestic new energy industry has faced new challenges while it is striding forward. The entire industry chain is incoordination, resulting in a relative surplus of production capacity. For example, due to the blind investment expansion, as the wind power industry as a result, the idling of the unit occurred under the condition that the supporting power grid could not keep up.

“The emergence of these problems has disrupted the previously established “12th Five-Year” energy development goals and has caused the “planning” that should have been introduced earlier to be delayed.” Song Liang told reporters that at present, the development speed of photovoltaic power generation is far from The wind power is fast, and the contradiction between photovoltaic installation equipment idleness is not yet prominent. It is not too late to make up for the fate. The introduction of the “planning” has stepped on the brakes in the direction of solar power development and encouraged the industry to scale up from large-scale power plants to distributed power generation according to local conditions. Advancement is mainly driven by photovoltaics to the coordinated development of photovoltaic and solar heat.

The reporter was informed that from the perspective of regional resource endowments, the natural conditions in different parts of China are quite different, and different regions are suitable for solar power generation facilities of different technical levels and scales. For example, it is more economical to develop large-scale power stations in the northwest region, and it is more appropriate to develop small-scale power plants in the southeast region.

Distributed generation It is understood that at present, China's solar power industry is mainly concentrated in the construction of large-scale photovoltaic power generation industry. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, under the financial support and policy guidance, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, etc. A batch of large-scale photovoltaic power stations have been built in the northwest region. However, in addition to photovoltaics, the northwestern region is also developing large-scale wind power, and local coal-to-natural gas conversion power generation will also develop. By then, a large amount of electricity will be transported from west to east, which will greatly increase the pressure of “West-to-East Electricity Transmission”.

“The long-distance power dispatching will also cause the cost of transportation and substations to rise. The most important thing is that considering the issue of ****, the economically developed regions in East China and South China rely excessively on 'West Power Transmission to the East' in the event of a natural disaster or The war is very large.” Song Liang said that accelerating the construction of small-scale, distributed solar power generation in East China and South China in accordance with local conditions will greatly reduce the dependence on power in the northwestern region.

At the same time, it is reported that the current large-scale photovoltaic power plants in China are mostly controlled by well-funded central enterprises, and SMEs are unable to compete. For example, in last year's on-grid bidding for 280 MW photovoltaic power generation project bids, the lowest prices broke out, and the successful bidders were all large-scale central enterprises. These companies used their own capital and other advantages to eliminate large numbers of SMEs through malicious low-price bids. outer.

"At present, China's photovoltaic industry is still in the primary development stage, and it is imperative to increase the comprehensive competitiveness of the industry through technological, management, and other innovations. If the industry is too monopolistic in the early stages of development, it will be detrimental to the innovation of technology and management systems, and it is bound to make the entire industry Into the ossification of 'a pool of stagnant water'." Song Liang bluntly, compared to photovoltaic power generation has the advantages of small scale, low investment, clean and environmentally friendly, reliable power supply and flexible power generation, usually large companies are reluctant to invest These "small profits" projects are very suitable for SMEs to build as owners. In addition, photovoltaic distributed generation has higher technical requirements. With the support of health support policies, SMEs are more technologically motivated than large enterprises.