More than 70% of the city's property market has shrunk sharply
The price turning point is gradually approaching, and 50 industries such as steel will be affected.
Last week, 26 of the 35 cities monitored by the China Index Research Institute experienced a year-on-year decline in transaction volume. Over 70% of the city's property market fell year-on-year, and the volume of transactions in 7 cities fell by more than 50%, with Changsha having the largest year-on-year decline. It reached 76.43%. Among the key cities, Shenzhen saw the largest decline, reaching 61.22%.
According to statistics from the Beijing Real Estate Transaction Management Network, in October (as of the 30th), the total number of second-hand residential nets in Beijing was 8,750 sets. Compared with the same period of last year, the transaction volume fell by nearly 50%.
On October 28, the Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission lowered the agency charges for second-hand housing transactions for the first time in 14 years. From August 31, the upper limit of the second-hand housing agency fee is adjusted from the current 2.5% to 2%. At the same time, the three fees for the transfer of the agent, the agency loan, and the house check-in will be capped at 1,000 yuan. For this new policy, some real estate industry insiders and Zhongyuan Real Estate, Chain Real Estate and other intermediary companies agree that despite the rapid rise in housing prices, the second-hand housing transaction agency fee is 50,000 or 60,000 yuan, but the agency fee standard The reduction is still unable to change the current situation of the shrinking volume of second-hand housing in Beijing.
According to the latest data from Hanyu Real Estate Market Research Department, the transaction volume of second-hand housing sales in Shanghai decreased by 24% in October, and the rental transaction volume also dropped by about 20%. Fu Wei, manager of Hanyu Real Estate Market Research Department, said that the volume of second-hand housing in the city is likely to fall below 10,000 in October, which will be the worst October since 2008.
Not only the volume of second-hand residential property fell sharply, but also the transaction of first-hand residential houses ended in disappointment. Some large-scale real estate developers chose to promote vigorously because they couldn’t help themselves. In general, the emergence of the inflection point is a process, first the sales shrink, then the price drops significantly, and finally the investment changes. Now, the volume of transactions has shrunk dramatically, and the promotion of house prices has also been abandoned by small and medium-sized housing companies.
Xue Jianxiong, an analyst at Zhongfangxin, believes that the reason for these large developers to take the lead in price cuts is not to win "life-saving money", but that they have no luck with policies and markets and tend to seize market opportunities. In particular, China Shipping Real Estate has experienced the downturn in the property market during the Hong Kong financial crisis and is more aware of the importance of taking the lead in price cuts.
Cao Yuanzheng, chief economist of the Bank of China, said that China's real estate is being affected by restrictions on purchase orders and loan tightening. It is likely to have a turning point in the Spring Festival next year, which will affect 50 upstream and downstream industries such as steel and building materials.
Weiye I love my family's vice president Hu Jinghui lamented that there are not many effective demand for the property market. Some people are limited in loans. Some people are limited to purchase. They are really qualified to buy, and there are not many people who can get some loans from the bank. Some are watching. On the occasion of the quiet arrival in winter, the market predicts that the transaction volume of the property market will continue to shrink in the fourth quarter of 2011, the price will stop rising, and the price reduction project will continue to increase significantly. In the true sense, the price turning point is gradually approaching.
As a leading real estate company, Xiao Li, executive vice president of Vanke Group, said at the investor conference call on October 25, “We can see the trend of shrinking sales, especially in big cities, prices are starting to decline. So we think Even buyers who have the ability to buy a house will choose to wait because they expect prices to fall further."
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