May 7 Steel Price Forecast

I. Macro News Briefing 1. Federal Reserve: Banks are still reluctant to relax standards. The Fed’s latest report released on Monday stated that banks are still reluctant to relax the standards of standards, which may be a cause for the recovery of the budding US housing market.

2. Australia may downgrade its economic growth forecast. According to the Wall Street Journal quoted local Australian media reports on the 6th, the Australian Treasury Department has lowered its expected growth rate for the current fiscal year and next fiscal year. According to the report, the Treasury Department lowered its GDP growth forecast for the current financial year up to June 30 and fiscal 2013-2014 by 0.25%, respectively. It is now expected that both the fiscal year and the next fiscal year will have an average GDP growth rate. It is 2.75%.

3. The State Council has deployed nine key points in the economic system reform this year. The meeting determined that reforms will be intensified in this year's key areas and key links such as the administrative system, finance and taxation, finance, investment, prices, people's livelihood, urban and rural areas, agriculture and rural areas, and science and technology.

In April and April, the four major banks added ** less than 250 billion yuan, and regulators paid attention to hidden risks. As of the end of March, the outstanding balance of commercial banks in China further climbed to 524.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, an increase of 33.9 billion yuan from the beginning of the year, and it has rebounded for six consecutive quarters.

In May and April, the volume of residential land in 300 cities in China declined. According to the relevant monitoring data released by the Index Information Center on the 6th, China’s 300 cities launched intensive residential land in April, but their trading volume has declined. In April of this year, 300 cities in China launched a total of 882 cases of residential land (including residential land and mixed land for residential use), totaling 36.89 million square meters, both up 32% from the previous month; 635 transactions and 25.64 million transactions. In terms of square meters, the number of rings decreased by 18% and 21% respectively.

Second, the relevant disk summary on Monday the US stock market ended mixed. The Standard & Poor's Index hit another record high and reached a new high. Last Friday, the S&P 500 exceeded 1600 points, while the Dow broke through the 15,000 point, all hitting record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.07 points to close at 14,968.89 points, a decrease of 0.03%; Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 3.08 points to close at 1,617.50 points, an increase of 0.19%. The New York Mercantile Exchange's gold price for June delivery rose by $3.8 to close at $1468 per ounce. Crude oil prices for June delivery rose by $0.55 to settle at $96.16 a barrel. Yesterday, the LME market will be closed due to the UK banking holiday. The closing price of LME floor copper last Friday was RMB 7,265/ton.

Third, the billet price trend early on the 7th: Yesterday, Tangshan billet reported steady, Changli this morning sent to 3190, Tangshan Xinglong / Guoyi factory 3170 are inclusive of taxes; traders bare 3040 or so.

Fourth, the ore price trend Yesterday, the domestic ore market weakened, supply and demand factors stalemate; import ore market weak stability, steel inquiry more but buying less, wait and see atmosphere thicker. The price of 66% sour dry powder in the Tangshan area is excluding the mainstream market price of 1,090 yuan. The current quotation of 63.5/63% Indian powder ore from the foreign mining market is around US$118. Tianjin Port's 63.5% Indian ore price is 950 yuan/ton, and Qingdao Port's 61.5% PB ore price is 910 yuan/ton.

V. Coke price trend Some coke prices in eastern China fell weakly yesterday. In the short-term coking plant, most of the shipments are mainly dark-downloaded. The inventory of most of the coke enterprises in the Shanxi area has been reduced. The price of the coke enterprises in the Hebei area has been weak and the inventory is not large. It is estimated that the price reduction of the coking enterprises in the later period is limited. The primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi Province is now 1,380 yuan/ton; the quasi-class metallurgical coke is tax-included at 1,330 yuan; the Hebei Province, Hebei Province, the secondary metallurgical coke, 1,390 yuan; the Huaibei region, the secondary metallurgical coke is included in the tax price, 1,320 yuan; Metallurgical coke factory tax price 1330 yuan.

6. The hot coiled coil closed at the close of May 6th. The closing price of the 25mm three-tier rebar in the Beijing market was 3,610 yuan/ton, up by 70 yuan/ton from the previous day; the Shanghai market was 3,522 yuan/ton by the third-day rebar, and the previous day's price Flat; Guangzhou three-tier rebar is 3,750 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day's price.

Closed on May 6th, the closing price of 5.5mmQ235 hot-rolled coil in Shanghai market was 3,680 yuan/ton, which was 30 yuan/ton higher than the previous day's price; the closing price of hot coil in Tianjin market was 3,550 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; The Lecong market enthusiasm closed at 3,780 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day.

VII, screw analysis of large groups May 6th, thread ** main contract 1310 higher than the previous day settlement price to open, to 3630 yuan opening, after the opening shock finishing, the highest touch 3650 yuan, the lowest probe to 3610 yuan, and finally It closed at 3,622 yuan, up 43 yuan from the previous trading day, and finally closed the small Yin line. Volume 3028888 hand, has shrunk compared with the previous day, positions 1,586,646 hands, an increase of 78,312 hands. It is estimated that today's price pressure will be 3,660 yuan/ton and the support point will be 3,590 yuan/ton.

On May 6th, the main contract of the hot-rolled electronic disk RB1307 was opened at 3680 yuan. After the opening, it was oscillated. The highest touched 3,700 yuan, the lowest reached 3,650 yuan, and finally closed at 3,655 yuan, up 18 yuan over the previous trading day. Close the small Yinxian. Volume of 177,760 lots was enlarged compared with the previous trading day. Open interest was 163,120 lots, an increase of 9,620 lots. It is expected that today's price pressure will be 3690 yuan/ton, and the support point will be 3600 yuan/ton.

Eight, spot price forecast is expected today Beijing market, the level of three-tier rebar 25mm stable, for 3610 yuan / ton; Shanghai market three rebar offer rose 20 yuan / ton, at 3540 yuan / ton; Guangzhou market three rebar market The price is stable, the offer is 3750 yuan / ton.

It is estimated that the mainstream quotation of 5.5mmQ235 hot-rolled coils in the Shanghai market will increase by RMB 10/ton at 3690 yuan/ton today; the listing price of hot-rolled coils in Tianjin market will increase by RMB 10/ton at RMB 3,560/ton; the quotation for hot coils in Lecong is stable. The market price is around 3780 yuan/ton.