Jian Jian Information (07.26): Copper and Aluminum recently added a “Risk Warning†column to describe the risk of long and short positions through the star image of this icon, so that investors can refer to it when dealing with open positions. In actual operation, investors need to take specific control based on their own short-medium-term trading strategies and different types of fluctuation characteristics. The specific star classification criteria are as follows: ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be less than 2%. ☆ ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be greater than 2%. ☆☆ ☆ The price range is reversed from the newer closing. The rate may be greater than 3%. ☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 4%. ☆☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 5% Risk Warning: Bullish Risk: ☆☆ Short-term risk: ☆ Tip: Eastern: Last March, the LME March copper oscillation rose to close at 2,705 US dollars / ton, down 132 US dollars, fluctuation range of 2862.5 ~ 2682.5 US dollars / ton. LME March aluminum closed at 1664.5 US dollars / ton, down 82 US dollars, trading range of 1753 ~ 1655.5 US dollars / ton. LME copper stocks fell by 2,925 tons over the week, with a stock of 91,525 tons. LME aluminum stocks fell 25,600 tons in the week, with a stock of 889,200 tons. The SSE’s copper inventories decreased by 6,924 tons, and the stock was 61,479 tons; the aluminum stock increased by 2,379 tons and the stock was 159,095 tons. Last week, LME copper fell sharply at $132 in March. After the US Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan’s speech on monetary policy, the sharp rise in the exchange rate of the US dollar was the main reason for the weakness of copper prices. Basically, one of the benefits to many is the low inventory of global copper, the second is that the global economy is still strong, and the third is that the soft landing of China's economy is more likely, and credit policy may be relaxed. One of the benefits to the Air Force is that although the US economy is undergoing the test of double deficits, the US economy has already benefited from the depreciation of the US dollar. In the later period, the overall US economy will be stronger than Europe and Japan. The overall shock of the US dollar exchange rate is more likely to rebound. Second, copper prices are generally at a relatively high historical level, which will inevitably lead to increased enthusiasm for copper production. This can be seen from the decline in processing fees for copper concentrates. It is expected that the global copper supply will tend to increase, and the third is currently the off-season copper consumption. The technical trend shows that the LME copper market is weaker in March, but in the short-term, due to a large drop, it is more likely to rebound after a rebound. Ma Hongqing: The LME copper price fell sharply on Friday's trading. The sharp rise of the US dollar and the stock market's downturn hit the enthusiasm for buying. However, the change in LME positions shows that the bulls are seriously divided internally. The Chinese factor will be heavy in future transactions. Return to LME copper market. Technically, copper prices have seen a typical head shape, and the 2720/2730 will be the main pressure level before falling again, and an effective price below 2700 would mean that 2500 will be tested. It is expected that Shanghai CU CU411 will test the support level of 25,000 on Monday, with further support at 24800 and pressure at 25200 followed by 25300. Investors are advised to patiently hold the short position in their hands, and the period of CU412 is considered to be short-selling at the 25000 line. Daily commentary: He Haihai: LME copper closed slightly higher on light trading on Thursday. The LME copper futures closed at 2793 points in late trade, up nearly 30 points from the previous trading day. The market's monthly contract turnover was 56338. hand. From the perspective of the surrounding species, we noticed that except for the strong lead in the recent period, all other varieties showed signs of rising powerlessness. On Friday afternoon, the external market suffered a sharp fall due to the sharp fall in Shanghai copper. The possibility of the cancellation of the Cananea copper strike threat of the Mexican group GrupoMexico has greatly increased, which will trigger a further correction of the copper price. Fundamentally, the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week ended July 17 fell to 339,000, which was lower than the market expectation of 345,000, indicating that employment conditions have improved and the price of copper has been supported. . However, the June index, the most important economic indicator with comprehensive significance, fell by 0.2% in June, the first decline in more than one year. Economists believe that the decline in leading indicators indicates that the US economy may cool down at the end of the year. This is unfavorable for the medium and long-term trend of copper prices. The New York dollar was slightly firmer against the euro on Thursday, and the week-long rally in the US dollar appears to have exhausted momentum. Earlier this week, the US Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan stated that the U.S. economy has grown steadily, inflation has not become a threat, and it has strengthened. The United States further raised interest rate expectations. Since then, the euro has fallen by about 1.5 cents. The U.S. leading indicator fell in June, revised downwards in May, and the peak of rising power is clearly visible. Combined with other data, the accelerated period of economic recovery has passed and the interest rate cycle has arrived. The leading indicators for July will also drop sharply, because in July 2003, this indicator jumped significantly. We will wait for the data to confirm whether this is a pause in the transition from accelerated growth to stable growth. The data that will be released later is that Chicago PMI, ISM, PCE, advise investors to pay attention. Technically, copper prices are still in the adjustment trend. The London copper futures are expected to compete and consolidate again around the 2,700 US dollars. Shanghai Copper is expected to compete around 25,000 yuan. Operational recommendations: short-sequence options to close overseas shipments: LME market report: London, July 24 news: due to long positions, Friday, LME 3 months copper fell 2.8%. It is reported that the strike of the Mexican group La Caridad Copper Mine was illegal through the arbitration court's decision, requiring workers to resume work on the 23rd, and investors have rolled over long copper contracts. The strike at the La Caridad copper mine began on July 12th, prompting the copper price to rise during this period. The Cananea copper mine of the Mexican Group also faced labour disputes. The company decided to meet with the Cananea copper miners on the 23rd to resolve the dispute. On the 23rd, the three-month copper price of LME fell to a two-week low of 2,689 U.S. dollars per ton. Later, due to speculative buying, copper prices received certain support. The final kerb price closed at 2713 U.S. dollars per ton. Although analysts expect copper prices to remain firm in the long term, they do not rule out the risk of more long positions in the near term, with support at $2,650/tonne. Nickel in LME for 3 months was dragged down by LME copper prices for 3 months, but the decline was deeper and the volume was light. It hit a five-week low of $13,650/ton in the session and support is expected to be at $13,500. Lead in LME for 3 months was more tenacious in the various base metals on the 23rd. Although most of the other contracts fell sharply, LME’s decline in lead in 3 months was limited. LME3 months tin was also dragged down by the fall in copper, and was also affected by fundamental news that the inventories increased by 150 tons. The London Metal Exchange statistics 22 tin inventory was 5,660 tons. COMEX Copper Market Report: NEW YORK, July 24 news: COMEX senior copper fell sharply on Friday due to long positions and USD strength. Traders said that as the stop loss triggers, the downtrend is intensifying. COMEX September copper closed at $1.2480/lb on the 23rd, down 3.90 cents. A trader of a futures brokerage firm said that the lack of strength in the dollar and the lack of fundamentals triggered a long liquidation of funds and investment banks. At the same time, it was reported that the strike of the Mexican group La Caridad Copper Mine was illegal through the arbitration court's decision, requiring workers to resume work on the 23rd. In addition, following the speech of Fed Chairman Greenspan, the market expects that the United States will increase interest rates by 25 basis points in August, and may raise interest rates by 100 basis points during the year, which will reduce the value of base metals. Moreover, economic data such as non-agricultural employment, retail sales, and industrial production values ​​in the United States in June were lower than expected, which also put copper prices under pressure. Analysts expect the next major support for copper for COMEX in September will be at $1.19/lb, with key resistance at $1.30/lb. In terms of inventory, copper inventories in London fell by 400 tons to 91,525 tons on the 23rd. On the 22nd, copper inventories in New York fell by 657 short tons to 84,650 short tons.
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