When the market is highly concerned that the US debt crisis has had a huge impact on the global financial market, the current pace of RMB appreciation is gradually accelerating. This phenomenon is also worthy of attention. If we take the initiative to choose the exchange rate instrument in combination with the latest expression of the People's Bank of China, the appreciation of the renminbi may become an important choice for China's macroeconomic regulation and control policy adjustment under the current European and American debt crisis. This trend of macroeconomic regulation and control tends to be worthy of attention. Before delving into the analysis, let us first observe the fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate after the outbreak of the US debt crisis. On the evening of August 5th, Standard & Poor's announced the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, which subsequently triggered a violent turmoil in the global financial market, and the renminbi trend also staged a thrilling scene of sharp appreciation. During the week from August 8 to 12, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar rose from 6.4451 to 6.4305 on Monday, with an appreciation of 0.23%. On Wednesday, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar rose to 6.4167, an appreciation of 0.26%; The central parity of the US dollar rose above 6.40 to close at 6.3991, with a one-day appreciation of 0.28%. So far, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has exceeded 6.4. This shows that the current pace of appreciation of the renminbi has shifted from "small step jogging" to "quick rush". The question is why has the RMB exchange rate suddenly increased sharply in the near future? In the author's view, although China's export data hit a record high in July and the trade surplus far exceeded expectations, the change in trade factors has a certain impact on the short-term RMB appreciation, but the more important factor is the sudden decline in the US sovereign credit rating. Because the unexpected decline in the US sovereign credit rating has greatly enhanced the short-selling dollar power in the international financial market, the future depreciation of the US dollar may be a long-term trend, and the result of the depreciation of the US dollar is the appreciation of the renminbi. From this perspective, the US debt crisis is one of the direct triggers that triggered the recent sharp appreciation of the renminbi. Of course, this US debt crisis has also made China see a little bit. First, China’s foreign exchange reserves have increased in recent years. At present, foreign exchange reserves have reached 3.2 trillion US dollars, of which about one-third of foreign exchange reserves are used to purchase US Treasury bonds. The US debt crisis has exposed various risks of US Treasury bonds. Although the United States can pay all debts by printing banknotes all the time, it means that the United States will never default, but it also shows that it is no longer the safest investment product in the world. Therefore, how to diversify the investment risk of China's foreign exchange reserves in the future is a question worthy of serious consideration. Second, given that the current huge public debt in the United States is still expanding, the US debt crisis will tend to be long-term. When huge public debts restrict the US from stimulating fiscal policies in the future, the burden of stimulating economic recovery falls to the Fed, forcing the Fed to continue to maintain zero interest rates and quantitative easing monetary policy. As a result, the dollar will also maintain a long-term depreciation trend. The depreciation of the US dollar means that China will face huge losses when it holds huge foreign exchange reserves. Recall that in the past 20 years, China has maintained an export-oriented economic growth mode. In order to increase employment and maintain economic growth, the People's Bank of China has to frequently implement hedging operations to stabilize the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar, thus keeping China's current account. With the “double surplus†of capital projects, foreign exchange reserves have continued to grow. However, the US debt crisis has predicted the long-term trend of the depreciation of the US dollar. Whether it is passively growing foreign exchange reserves or US Treasury bonds purchased with foreign exchange reserves, the result will be a large investment loss for China. Therefore, how to achieve reasonable growth in foreign exchange reserves in the future and avoid excessive investment in US Treasury bonds means that China's exchange rate policy will face adjustment pressure in the future. At the same time, the internal and external environment facing the Chinese economy under the US debt crisis is undergoing profound changes. The depreciation of the US dollar has a major impact on current and future China's imported inflation, while the current Chinese economy is facing the dual pressure of slowing growth and rising inflation. In view of the fact that policy measures such as raising interest rates and raising the deposit reserve ratio have a more direct impact on the economy, although monetary tightening policies have a certain effect on curbing inflation, they will also have an adverse impact on stable economic growth. In this context, intentional or proactive use of exchange rate policy tools, or sub-optimal choices for the current adjustment of China's macro-control policies. Because the excessive growth and accumulation of foreign exchange reserves has become one of the important factors influencing the current inflationary rise, hindering the pace of economic restructuring, and actively allowing the renminbi to moderately accelerate the pace of appreciation, which will help the current economic structure of China. Adjustments can also adjust the current "double surplus" scale in China and effectively control the current inflationary pressure, and can also avoid further rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves. From this perspective, the US debt crisis is the trigger for the pace of RMB appreciation, but China is more proactive in adjusting its exchange rate policy – ​​allowing the renminbi to accelerate its appreciation, indicating that the exchange rate instrument has risen to the current adjustment of China’s macroeconomic regulation and control policy. One of the most important policy tools.
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