US steel market supply and demand and price analysis - cold rolled coil

Cold rolled coil

Supply: US cold rolled coil production will increase in 2010, and its inventory is currently at the lowest level. Although the production of cold-rolled coils is recovering, there are still many cold-rolled coil production capacities that have been idled. By the first half of 2010, the production of cold rolled steel in the United States has increased relatively rapidly. After the second half, it will slow down. The supply of cold-rolled coils is basically the same as that of hot-rolled coils. Once the production volume of cold-rolled coils in the United States has returned to 80% of the normal level in 2010, its output will increase further in 2011 and 2012.

Demand:

The demand for cold rolled coils in the United States is increasing, but its demand is still weak. In 2010, the demand for cold rolled coils in the United States will be only 80% in 2007 and 2008. The reason is that the demand for cold rolled coils is low. The fourth quarter of 2009 witnessed a rebound in vehicle output. However, overall, in 2010, US vehicle production will increase by 20% from 2009, but its output is still only two-thirds of that in 2007. The demand for cold rolled coils in the US is similar to that of hot rolled coils.

Price: In June 2009, the market price of cold rolled coils in the United States fell sharply and fell to US$467 per short ton. In May and June 2009, it was the first time since January 2004 that every short ton dropped to less than $500. It is impossible to maintain such a low price level for a long time. The scrap surcharge was later charged again. In early 2010, the market price of cold-rolled coils rose. Due to the scrap surcharge, the market price of cold-rolled coils at the end of 2009 rose from US$598 per short ton to US$650 in early 2010. It is predicted that by mid-2010, the market price of cold rolled coils in the United States and the United States will fall again, and thereafter it will rise again. Looking ahead to the 2010 market trend of cold rolled coil prices in the United States, its price level is close to the 2007 average. 2007 was the weakest year for the cold rolled coil market in the United States from 2004 to 2007. In 2011, the price of the whole year picked up slowly, and the prices of 2012 and later have seen a stronger upward trend.