In July, the south continued to heat up, and the heat wave in the north also came back. The hot weather once again pushed the supply of coal to the cusp. On July 4, the reporter interviewed many parties and learned that at present, both the supply of coal and the price of coal are basically stable. However, if the high temperature weather continues, the consumption of coal will increase rapidly, and the tight supply in some areas will be difficult to avoid.
Taking Jiangxi as an example, under the warning of orange high temperature, the highest power load in the province has increased by about 20% from the previous month, and the Jiangxi power grid has entered the peak summer. At present, "Jiangxi thermal power coal stocks have reached normal levels, and the water and electricity levels have reached the normal water level, laying a good foundation for the peak summer." Zhou Dongliang, director of the operation department of Jiangxi Electric Power Dispatching Center, said.
At the same time, the reporter learned from the Qinhuangdao Port, the wind vane of the coal market, that the current price of coal and stocks are stable. As of July 2, Qinhuangdao Port's 6,000-calorie Datong high-mix coal was quoted at 780-790 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.
In addition, the price of 5,500 kcal thermal power coal in Qinhuangdao Port is 750-760 yuan / ton, the price of 5,000 kcal thermal coal is 650-660 yuan / ton, and the price of 4500 kcal thermal coal is 570-580 yuan / ton. Among them, it is surprising that the price of ordinary blended coal with a calorific value of 4,500 kcal is even lower by 5 yuan/ton from last week.
Coal stocks have not changed. As of July 2, the coal inventory of Qinhuangdao Port was 5.874 million tons, an increase of 152,000 tons from the previous day. At the same time, the national direct power supply plant coal inventory of 57.8 million tons, the available days is 18 days, at a normal level.
The reporter learned that due to the impact of the peak peak of summer coal consumption, the demand for coal for power generation quickly bottomed out. If the high temperature weather continues, the coal consumption of power plants in various places will increase rapidly, and the supply shortage in some areas is difficult to avoid.
According to the data of Zhongneng Power Company, from June 1 to 16, the average daily coal consumption of key power plants nationwide was 2.991 million tons, which was reduced by 68,000 tons compared with the average daily coal consumption in May. However, with the rapid increase of temperature in most parts of the north, the average daily coal consumption of key power plants increased rapidly. From June 17 to 27, the average daily coal consumption of key power plants was 3.147 million tons, which was from 1 to 16 days. Than, an increase of 5.2%.
According to statistics, on June 30, China's key power plants consumed 3.292 million tons of coal, an increase of 7.63% from the average level in May. The daily average coal consumption of power plants has soared, which means that the coal inventory of power plants will accelerate to decline. If the above data is calculated, the coal storage in Qinhuangdao Port is only enough for the key power plants to consume less than 2 days.
What is even more worrying is that in the face of the peak of coal consumption in the next two or three months, coal prices may be “slowly movingâ€. In fact, the current "market coal" has a difference of nearly 200 yuan per ton with "contracted coal", which undoubtedly provides a space for the coal brokers to "spoil".
"At present, the coal price of Qinhuangdao Port is stable. It is not unrelated to the National Development and Reform Commission to give large-scale coal enterprises such as Shenhua and Tongmei in advance, and it is not unrelated to introduce a 'limit price order'." An industry insider told reporters. In fact, just in the week when the price limit order was issued, the coal price of Qinhuangdao Port rose by 5-10 yuan per ton, and it has returned to a stable level in the past two weeks.
The above-mentioned insiders told reporters that from the past, large-scale state-owned coal enterprises such as China Coal and Shenhua have maintained more than 100% of the coal-fired contract execution rate, but the peak summer season is often active in the coal-fired middlemen. period. In fact, in the same period last year, the reporter noticed that due to the middleman “steam coalâ€, the phenomenon of “quantity and price increase†appeared in Qinhuangdao Port. Therefore, under the current circumstances, it is not ruled out that the middlemen will once again "sell coal to stay up" and profit from it.
However, some analysts said that due to factors such as regulatory policies, the increase in coal prices may be much lower than expected.
Taking Jiangxi as an example, under the warning of orange high temperature, the highest power load in the province has increased by about 20% from the previous month, and the Jiangxi power grid has entered the peak summer. At present, "Jiangxi thermal power coal stocks have reached normal levels, and the water and electricity levels have reached the normal water level, laying a good foundation for the peak summer." Zhou Dongliang, director of the operation department of Jiangxi Electric Power Dispatching Center, said.
At the same time, the reporter learned from the Qinhuangdao Port, the wind vane of the coal market, that the current price of coal and stocks are stable. As of July 2, Qinhuangdao Port's 6,000-calorie Datong high-mix coal was quoted at 780-790 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.
In addition, the price of 5,500 kcal thermal power coal in Qinhuangdao Port is 750-760 yuan / ton, the price of 5,000 kcal thermal coal is 650-660 yuan / ton, and the price of 4500 kcal thermal coal is 570-580 yuan / ton. Among them, it is surprising that the price of ordinary blended coal with a calorific value of 4,500 kcal is even lower by 5 yuan/ton from last week.
Coal stocks have not changed. As of July 2, the coal inventory of Qinhuangdao Port was 5.874 million tons, an increase of 152,000 tons from the previous day. At the same time, the national direct power supply plant coal inventory of 57.8 million tons, the available days is 18 days, at a normal level.
The reporter learned that due to the impact of the peak peak of summer coal consumption, the demand for coal for power generation quickly bottomed out. If the high temperature weather continues, the coal consumption of power plants in various places will increase rapidly, and the supply shortage in some areas is difficult to avoid.
According to the data of Zhongneng Power Company, from June 1 to 16, the average daily coal consumption of key power plants nationwide was 2.991 million tons, which was reduced by 68,000 tons compared with the average daily coal consumption in May. However, with the rapid increase of temperature in most parts of the north, the average daily coal consumption of key power plants increased rapidly. From June 17 to 27, the average daily coal consumption of key power plants was 3.147 million tons, which was from 1 to 16 days. Than, an increase of 5.2%.
According to statistics, on June 30, China's key power plants consumed 3.292 million tons of coal, an increase of 7.63% from the average level in May. The daily average coal consumption of power plants has soared, which means that the coal inventory of power plants will accelerate to decline. If the above data is calculated, the coal storage in Qinhuangdao Port is only enough for the key power plants to consume less than 2 days.
What is even more worrying is that in the face of the peak of coal consumption in the next two or three months, coal prices may be “slowly movingâ€. In fact, the current "market coal" has a difference of nearly 200 yuan per ton with "contracted coal", which undoubtedly provides a space for the coal brokers to "spoil".
"At present, the coal price of Qinhuangdao Port is stable. It is not unrelated to the National Development and Reform Commission to give large-scale coal enterprises such as Shenhua and Tongmei in advance, and it is not unrelated to introduce a 'limit price order'." An industry insider told reporters. In fact, just in the week when the price limit order was issued, the coal price of Qinhuangdao Port rose by 5-10 yuan per ton, and it has returned to a stable level in the past two weeks.
The above-mentioned insiders told reporters that from the past, large-scale state-owned coal enterprises such as China Coal and Shenhua have maintained more than 100% of the coal-fired contract execution rate, but the peak summer season is often active in the coal-fired middlemen. period. In fact, in the same period last year, the reporter noticed that due to the middleman “steam coalâ€, the phenomenon of “quantity and price increase†appeared in Qinhuangdao Port. Therefore, under the current circumstances, it is not ruled out that the middlemen will once again "sell coal to stay up" and profit from it.
However, some analysts said that due to factors such as regulatory policies, the increase in coal prices may be much lower than expected.
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