The 2009 China Economic Forecast and Outlook report released by the Center for Prediction Science of the Chinese Academy of Sciences on the 19th predicts that China’s GDP growth rate will be around 8.3% in 2009.
The report believes that due to the impact of the international financial crisis, the Chinese economy will continue to decline in the first half of 2009, but under the influence of strong macro-control policies, the Chinese economy will be ahead of the world economy and begin to improve. In the third quarter of 2009, it began to rebound.
The report predicts that the GDP growth rate will be around 8.3% in 2009, with the primary industry increasing by about 5.0%, the secondary industry by about 9.8%, the tertiary industry by about 9.5%, and the industrial added value growth of about 10.7%. .
Yang Xiaoguang, deputy director of the Center for Prediction Science of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that large-scale government investment will have a great impact on stimulating consumption and restoring confidence, and will drive a large amount of social investment, which will play a major role in maintaining growth. However, the decline in imports and exports, the stock market and the downturn in real estate will restrict the growth of investment to a certain extent. Fixed asset investment will be in a downward trend in the first two quarters of 2009, and will start to pick up in the third quarter, with a growth rate of around 23% and a fixed urban investment of 24%.
The report predicts that China's consumer confidence index will continue to be sluggish in 2009, the growth rate of consumption will slow down and show a certain downward trend, but each quarter will maintain a growth rate of more than 10%, and the total retail sales of consumer goods will increase by about 13 in the whole year. %. According to the report, due to the impact of the global economic recession, China's export growth rate will decline significantly in 2009. The total export value will increase by 6.5%, the total import volume will increase by 4.6%, and the total import and export volume will increase by 5.7%.
The report predicts that the CPI will rise by about 0.75% in 2009, and the growth rate in the four quarters will be first and then increased, which is about -0.35%, 0.54%, 1.09%, and 1.70%.
The report believes that due to the impact of the international financial crisis, the Chinese economy will continue to decline in the first half of 2009, but under the influence of strong macro-control policies, the Chinese economy will be ahead of the world economy and begin to improve. In the third quarter of 2009, it began to rebound.
The report predicts that the GDP growth rate will be around 8.3% in 2009, with the primary industry increasing by about 5.0%, the secondary industry by about 9.8%, the tertiary industry by about 9.5%, and the industrial added value growth of about 10.7%. .
Yang Xiaoguang, deputy director of the Center for Prediction Science of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that large-scale government investment will have a great impact on stimulating consumption and restoring confidence, and will drive a large amount of social investment, which will play a major role in maintaining growth. However, the decline in imports and exports, the stock market and the downturn in real estate will restrict the growth of investment to a certain extent. Fixed asset investment will be in a downward trend in the first two quarters of 2009, and will start to pick up in the third quarter, with a growth rate of around 23% and a fixed urban investment of 24%.
The report predicts that China's consumer confidence index will continue to be sluggish in 2009, the growth rate of consumption will slow down and show a certain downward trend, but each quarter will maintain a growth rate of more than 10%, and the total retail sales of consumer goods will increase by about 13 in the whole year. %. According to the report, due to the impact of the global economic recession, China's export growth rate will decline significantly in 2009. The total export value will increase by 6.5%, the total import volume will increase by 4.6%, and the total import and export volume will increase by 5.7%.
The report predicts that the CPI will rise by about 0.75% in 2009, and the growth rate in the four quarters will be first and then increased, which is about -0.35%, 0.54%, 1.09%, and 1.70%.
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