RMB or step into the rapid and active appreciation period comprehensive policy is pending

The active appreciation of the renminbi is rapidly advancing.   The latest data shows that the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar on August 24 was reported at 6.3896, up 91 basis points from the previous trading day, and hit a new high since the exchange rate reform. Wu Qing (microblogging), a researcher at the Finance Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, told the China Business News: "The economic restructuring must release the exchange rate. We need to do two things now. First, the price will make the RMB appreciate faster. The second is to promote the reform of the RMB exchange rate mechanism and let the RMB float freely.” The data of the initiative appreciation signal shows that as of August 24, the RMB against the US dollar has been remitted since July 2005. Since its reform, it has accumulatively appreciated 29.43%, of which the appreciation rate from 2011 to the present has reached 3.65%. It is worth noting that since the appreciation of the RMB has accelerated significantly since the beginning of August, the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar has accumulated to 1.28% in less than two months. China's last appreciation accelerated in the first half of this year, entering April 2011, and continuously broke through 6 barriers of 6.55, 6.54, 6.53, 6.52, 6.51, 6.50, and the appreciation of the RMB from January to April was 1.90%. These two segments of accelerated appreciation are showing signs of RMB's active appreciation. Sun Lijian, deputy dean of Fudan University's School of Economics, told reporters: "Strategically, the two phases of RMB appreciation this year have been different from the past, that is, the state's attitude has shifted from passive to active, and the pace of RMB appreciation is accelerating. Feldstein, a professor at Harvard University who served as an adviser to President Reagan, said that China’s political and economic considerations are intended to allow the yuan to appreciate against the dollar. He predicts that the US dollar may continue to depreciate against the euro and other currencies in the next few years. If China wants to increase the global exchange rate of the renminbi to reduce investment risks and control inflationary pressures, it will allow the renminbi to appreciate substantially against the dollar. This view has led to widespread speculation that “the Chinese government is about to introduce a new exchange rate policy, so that the strictly regulated renminbi will significantly accelerate the pace of appreciation and allow the renminbi to increase its volatility under the influence of the market.” China has been In an outward-oriented economic growth mode, in order to increase employment and maintain economic growth, local governments encourage export-oriented foreign exchange policies and exchange large amounts of foreign exchange. Due to the pressure of RMB appreciation, the central bank has to frequently pass the hedging operation to achieve the renminbi's tight focus on the US dollar and maintain the stability of the exchange rate, thus keeping China's current account and capital projects double surplus. "This exchange rate policy is successful and has greatly promoted the rapid development of China's economy, but the structural problems have become more prominent. China should change the way of economic growth." Wu Qing, a researcher at the Financial Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, said. Why the release of the exchange rate shows that the US debt crisis is the trigger for accelerating the pace of RMB appreciation, but China is more proactively strategically accelerating and accelerating the internationalization of the RMB, indicating that exchange rate instruments may have surpassed interest rate instruments and rise to the current Chinese economy. One of the most important policy tools for structural adjustment and macroeconomic regulation. "China's foreign exchange and monetary policy has been subject to the US dollar for many years. The most fundamental thing is to adjust the mode of economic growth. Our current export-oriented economic growth mode has gone for more than a decade and has been very successful. There is no other country in the world. After walking for so long, if you go almost the same, you have to change a road. In terms of policy, you must release the exchange rate." Wu Qing said. "Why do you have so much foreign exchange, you don't want to let the renminbi appreciate. As long as we appreciate, we will continue to intervene, constantly selling renminbi, buying dollars, and buying foreign exchange. Although this has controlled the exchange rate, at the same time, foreign exchange has accumulated. Wu Qing said. The recent positive appreciation of the renminbi was driven by the turmoil in the US debt crisis and the fall of China’s foreign exchange reserves into the “dollar trap”. As the S&P downgrades the US debt rating, the US debt purchased by China is subject to a greater risk of investment losses. Since the financial crisis in 2008, although public opinion has agreed that the holding of US Treasury bonds should be reduced, the structure of foreign exchange reserves should be rationalized. However, in the past few years, China’s purchase of US debt has increased. Currently, China holds at least US$1.16 trillion in US Treasury bonds. It is the country with the largest number of US Treasury bonds. The fundamental reason lies in China’s growing foreign trade surplus. During the decade from 2000 to 2010, the US dollar depreciated by 20% against the RMB. As a result, China’s foreign exchange reserves increased by 16% in the past decade, but it was converted into RMB, with an increase of less than 13%. "Adjustment is imperative. China has exchanged a large amount of exports for a pile of depreciating US Treasury bonds, and it is constantly facing the risk of investment losses. This road will no longer work. We should make a fuss about reducing the source of foreign trade surplus." China Construction Bank (4.56, -0.05, -1.08%) International financial expert Zhao Qingming (microblogging) said. At the same time, the excessive growth and accumulation of China's foreign exchange reserves has become one of the important factors driving the current inflation. Since China holds a large number of US debts, the US dollar and the renminbi are now closely linked to the “fishing”. China’s monetary policy has lost its independence. As soon as the US monetary policy is relaxed, China’s monetary policy will follow suit. When the US monetary policy tightens, China’s monetary policy will Will tighten. Therefore, the monetary policy of losing exchange rate instruments is difficult to prevent domestic inflation. A comprehensive policy has yet to be released. The appreciation of the renminbi is "adding to the worse for some export-oriented SMEs." Some Wenzhou SME owners said, "Because of the impact of the European and American debt crisis, the foreign economic situation is not optimistic, and with the appreciation of the renminbi, we have almost no profit, and then the company can only go bankrupt." The reporter learned that the general industry's outward The export profit margin of small and medium-sized enterprises is only 3% to 5%. If the appreciation of the RMB exceeds 5%, they will be unprofitable and will have a greater impact on certain industries. For example, for large and low-end textile exports, the value of RMB will rise. 1%, the textile industry sales profit margin will drop by 2% to 6%. However, the appreciation of the renminbi is conducive to promoting industrial integration and accelerating the survival of the fittest in the industry. At present, there are many small and medium-sized enterprises in China's textile and garment industry, and they are characterized by many, small and mixed. After the 2008 financial crisis, some small and medium-sized enterprises have been eliminated in the industry, and the concentration of the industry has begun to increase. Lian Ping (Weibo), chief economist of Bank of Communications (4.84, 0.00, 0.00%), believes that the enhanced flexibility of the RMB exchange rate will promote the transfer of technology and innovative products to the coastal export industry and transfer to the central and western regions. At the same time, it will guide resources from the export sector. Configured to the domestic demand sector such as the service industry to reduce the excessive dependence of the economy on exports. These all contribute to industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and transformation of economic development. Wu Qing believes that "3% to 5% of the profit rate can not withstand the appreciation of more than 5%" judgment, is the small business owners in the field of competition "only see the trees (own business) do not see the forest (the industry in which they are located) ", draw conclusions based on the static financial analysis of the company. If the economic analysis of the impact of the appreciation of the renminbi is carried out, the conclusion reached is the opposite. In fact, “3% to 5% profit margin” is a common feature of all fully competitive industries, and has nothing to do with exchange rates and wage levels. However, the current form is that SMEs are still facing the shortage of funds. Since last year, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio for 12 consecutive times, making the deposit reserve ratio of large and medium-sized financial institutions reach a historical high of 21.5%. Entering the freezing period, the monetary policy that is constantly tightening has “small killing” of small and medium-sized enterprises. Some small and medium-sized enterprises even resorted to private loan sharks. During this period, the appreciation of the renminbi is even worse. "At the same time as the appreciation of the renminbi, the government will introduce comprehensive supporting measures." Zong Liang believes that the SMEs will be able to withstand the pace of renminbi appreciation as the SMEs change their production methods and increase their productivity. Taking into account the transformation of the economic structure, and in the meantime, it is necessary to cooperate with the adjustment of appropriate foreign trade policies, but also to solve the problem of difficult loans for SMEs.

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