This week, the central bank's interest rate hikes continue to test the market's affordability. What are the negative factors that will continue to move forward to the Chinese economy, and will this tightening monetary policy continue? Qu Hongbin, chief economist of HSBC China and co-head of Asia-Pacific Economic Research, said in an exclusive interview with the reporter of "Daily Economic News": "The government's monetary tightening regulation policy has come to an end, and the tight monetary policy will continue from the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, it will turn into a relatively stable or neutral monetary policy.†Qu Hongbin pointed out that “in the third and fourth quarters, China’s GDP growth may slow down to below 9%, but it will remain above 8.5%. It is moderate, and it is the slowdown we need to control inflation, but it will not slow down to below 8.5%, and will not make a hard landing." Based on the above judgment on fundamentals, Qu Hongbin believes that for the financial market, under the stock market In the first half of the year, HSBC believes that there will be at least 20% upside in the Chinese stock market in the second half of the year. The austerity policy is coming to an end NBD: The central bank announced a rate hike this Wednesday, what is your judgment on future monetary policy? Qu Hongbin: I think the austerity policy is now coming to an end. The tight monetary policy will continue in the third quarter, and the fourth quarter will turn into a relatively stable or neutral monetary policy, but will not reverse to a relaxed state. In this round of inflation adjustment, the role of interest rates has always been second, mainly to manage inflation expectations. In this sense, if inflation peaks in July and August this year, the pressure to use interest rate instruments will be alleviated. Real estate regulation and control will continue NBD: If the CPI inflation rate is adjusted back, the tight policy will end at the end of the third quarter, will house prices return to the rising range? Qu Hongbin: No. The end of policy tightening does not mean reversal. These are two different concepts. The growth rate of China's economy above 8% is irritating. Not surprisingly, inflation will peak between 6% and 6.5% in June-July this year, and will gradually fall back. By the end of 2011, the monthly CPI will fall back to around 4%, but the average annual target of 4% is impossible. achieve. The fall in CPI inflation does not mean the end of real estate policy, because real estate policy has specific goals and has nothing to do with CPI. Real estate regulation is a process of gradually overweight. This year's overall credit policy is tight, and the regulatory policies such as the National Ten are superimposed, and the effect of the superposition will become more and more obvious. This is the overall trend. Moderate economic slowdown NBD: If monetary policy is not relaxed during the year, will it affect economic growth? How likely is the Chinese economy to have a hard landing? Qu Hongbin: With the effect of the intensive austerity policy since October last year, coupled with the slowdown in external demand and the continuation of inventory reduction, economic growth will continue to slow down, but the slowdown is controllable. Specifically, China's GDP growth is expected to slow from 9.7% in the first quarter of this year to around 9% in the second quarter, and may slow down to below 9% in the third and fourth quarters, but will remain above 8.5%. . HSBC believes that this slowdown is moderate and is a necessary slowdown to control inflation, but it will not slow down to below 8.5%, and even lead to a hard landing. Despite the tightening of credit, the number of newly started projects has decreased, but a large number of “Tiegongji†projects under 4 trillion yuan are still under construction. Subsequent investment in construction projects will slow down the investment, in the second half of this year and next year. Investment will not fall sharply. With follow-on investment in projects under construction, as well as processing capital and interest rate-raising consumption, China is fully capable of supporting 8% to 9% growth. 8% to 9% growth, corresponding to 3% to 4% inflation, the future is an ideal combination. If it can become the norm, it will be the best situation in the Chinese economy. Be wary of local debts evolved into systemic risk NBD: Recently, with the speculations of loan defaults of certain city investment companies in Yunnan and Shanghai, they have appeared in the newspapers, making the risk of local government debt platform once again enter the public eye. Do you think the related risks are underestimated or high? Estimated? Qu Hongbin: At the end of June, the National Audit Office's report revealed a number of noteworthy details. From a macro perspective, 80% of the 10.7 trillion total debt comes from banks, which means that local bonds are closely related to banks. The most urgent task of the future is to prevent the local debt problem from evolving into the risk of the banking system. The problem of local government debt is very serious, because in the 10.7 trillion local debt, more than 5 trillion loans will be repaid in the next 30 months, and the impact on the banking system cannot be underestimated. According to HSBC's survey, platform loans and local loan borrowings are mainly invested in municipal construction and “Tiegongji†projects. Even in the medium to long term, the best investment returns are long. The mismatch between the debt maturity and the payback period means that the short-term project itself has insufficient cash flow to repay the principal and interest. A feasible way to solve the above problems is to immediately start municipal debt and local government bond issuance programs. Issuing debt is not a simple debt extension. Its advantage is to make the debt transparent and turn the “dark debt†into “clear debtâ€, which helps to restrict the scale and use of local government financing through market mechanisms. Another option is to revitalize assets through asset securitization or asset realization, which is in line with the government's transformation requirements, withdraw from profitable commercial assets, and better engage in social service work.
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