The General Administration of Customs announced the import and export data of March and the first quarter of this year. In the first quarter, China's total import and export value was 859.37 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.3%. Of this total, exports were US$430.02 billion, up 7.6% year-on-year; imports were US$429.35 billion, up 6.9% year-on-year; the trade surplus was only US$670 million, slightly better than the deficit of US$1 billion in the same period last year. Lu Zhiming, a researcher at the Center for Financial Research, believes that this does not mean that the trade situation this year is better than last year. In fact, due to the Spring Festival in January this year, the export recovery in February was lower than expected. The export scale in March was still significantly lower than the level at the end of last year. The export recovery in the first quarter of this year was worse than in previous years. According to customs data, China’s total import and export value in March was 325.97 billion U.S. dollars, down 7.1% year-on-year. Among them, the export growth rate dropped to a low level year-on-year, while the import growth rate increased by 5.3% year-on-year and continued to fall sharply. But the deficit from February fell to a $5.35 billion surplus. Chart: Trade surplus in March tends to improve From the perspective of trading countries, the growth rate of bilateral trade between China and major trading partners such as Europe and the United States has slowed down to single digits. And the import and export growth with Brazil, Russia and other countries is slightly better. From the perspective of imported commodity structure, the import prices of traditional commodities such as iron ore and soybeans have maintained a downward trend. From the perspective of export commodity structure, the export of electromechanical and traditional bulk commodities is at a low level. In the first quarter, the export growth rate of some labor-intensive products such as mechanical and electrical products, textiles and clothing and shoes continued to be low. Lu Zhiming, a researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, said, "The main reason for the year-on-year decline in exports this year: First, it has entered a period of high export volume in March last year, and the export scale in March this year has not reached the level of about 175 billion at the end of last year. This led to a year-on-year decline to a low level. Second, the recent economic recovery in Europe and the United States has slowed slightly, reducing the demand for Chinese merchandise exports. Third, the rising labor costs in coastal cities and the large appreciation of the renminbi have led to limited capacity increase in the export industry. He believes that the reason for the sharp fall in imports in the month is not only the high base, but also the weak domestic economy and the price cuts of commodity prices. Recent market expectations indicate that US GDP may fall back to around 2% in the first quarter, and the Conference Bureau consumers in March. Confidence also fell from high to 70.2. The euro zone economic recovery is still not optimistic, Eurostat latest forecast that the euro zone GDP will continue to fall by 0.2% in the first quarter, the poor economic conditions in Europe and the United States lead to shrinking external export market demand, Baltic dry bulk The index also fell to around 928, close to 2008 The low point of the crisis period. Therefore, the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center predicts that China’s exports are expected to remain low in April compared to the same period last year, because not only the export volume in April was the same as that in March, but the European debt may continue to expand to Spain, etc. In the short term, domestic export enterprises are facing the dual pressure of rising exchange rate and labor costs. As for imports, the bank expects that the year-on-year growth rate will continue to be at a low level and comprehensive import and export. It is expected that the trade surplus will remain at a low level in April 2012. The annual trade surplus will be around $120 billion.
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