Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council said recently that there are still many unfavorable factors affecting the smooth operation of the economy in the second half of the year, and the difficulty of steady growth is still relatively large. At present, we must attach great importance to the problems and difficulties in import and export trade, take targeted measures to promote stable growth of exports, and provide good conditions for achieving the goals of economic and social development throughout the year.
Zhang Yongjun, deputy director of the research department of China International Economic Exchange Center, said that from the impact of the international economic situation on China's exports, the European economy continued to slump in the first half of the year, and the US economic growth rate slowed down noticeably. Only the Japanese economy was rebuilt after the disaster. And the impact of monetary policy has accelerated. Major emerging economies such as Brazil and India have been significantly affected by the decline in international commodity prices and the volatility of international capital flows. The recent economic growth rate has dropped significantly.
In addition, since the fourth quarter of 2011, the real effective exchange rate of the RMB has appreciated at a faster pace, which will have an adverse impact on exports in the second half of the year and even in the first half of next year.
Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, also said that the current GDP data is not expected to be mainly dragged down by the foreign trade sector, while the downturn in the foreign trade sector is mainly suppressed by the overvalued real effective exchange rate of the renminbi. Therefore, unless the dollar weakens in the future, the continuously overvalued real effective exchange rate of the renminbi will eventually make the temporarily recovering GDP unsustainable.
Huo Jianguo, dean of the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that the main reason for the current difficulties in foreign trade is that industrial development is more difficult, which is reflected in the rising pressure on production costs of enterprises, including the rise in labor costs. In addition, credit, taxation market and market competition environment are not ideal in all aspects, which leads to the development of China's real economy in a difficult stage.
Regarding the tight export situation, Premier Wen stressed that the third quarter is a crucial period for achieving the annual export growth target. Measures should be taken in a targeted manner, including accelerating the progress of export tax rebates to ensure timely tax rebates; expanding the scale of export credit insurance and increasing export credits. Insurance coverage; immediately organize a comprehensive inspection of foreign trade enterprises' fees, cancel unreasonable and illegal fees, reduce the burden on enterprises; improve financial services, guide financial institutions to increase exchange rate hedging products, pay close attention to market changes, and make necessary foreign trade policies reserve.
In this regard, Huo Jianguo said that the expansion of exports can be achieved through two aspects, one is to revitalize the real economy. Second, China's actual use of foreign capital has continued to decline this year. Next, China should make a fuss in this regard in order to achieve restorative growth in this area.
In the short term, Huo Jianguo pointed out that on the one hand, it should increase credit support for enterprises. On the other hand, it is necessary to improve the facilitation of foreign trade and improve the level of service.
In the medium and long term, Huo Jianguo pointed out that measures such as increasing the export tax rebate rate can also be adopted.
"The proposed guidance on foreign trade this time needs to be achieved through comprehensive medium- and long-term comprehensive measures." Huo Jianguo said.
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