Small and medium-sized photovoltaic enterprises in Zhejiang, Jiangsu and other places have already experienced limited production and production suspension, and the industry reshuffle has begun to be confirmed. However, most companies in the industry believe that the enterprises that have been eliminated are not themselves. Even if they are eliminated, they will be merged by large enterprises. Once the European debt crisis has passed and the economy recovers, the PV market will regain its glory. Whether the photovoltaic industry will be as optimistic as these companies think, how long will the industry reshuffle, how should companies self-help? Li Junfeng, deputy director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission and vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, said in an exclusive interview with the China Securities Journal reporter that the photovoltaic industry may not be too short in a difficult period, and it may take 3-5 years to reshuffle.
Shuffle or prolonged war
China Securities Journal: Many domestic PV companies believe that the PV market will restart after the economy improves next year. Do you think the photovoltaic industry will pick up in the second half of next year?
Li Junfeng: The dilemma of the photovoltaic industry is not a market demand problem, but an over-investment in the photovoltaic industry and overcapacity. The domestic photovoltaic industry has spent 3-5 years walking the photovoltaic industry for 10 years, which makes photovoltaic companies have no way to go in the next 10 years.
Global PV demand is expected to be 22G watts in 2011, 30G watts in 2015 and 50G watts in 2020. But this year, the global PV module production capacity exceeds 50G watts, and the output exceeds 30G watts. The output of China's PV modules accounts for 60-70% of global production. This means that there will be a backlog of 8G-10G watts of PV modules this year, and excess capacity from over-investment needs to be cut.
China Securities Journal: How long do you expect the entire reshuffle process in the PV industry to last?
Li Junfeng: I think the reshuffle process in the photovoltaic industry will last for 3-5 years in China. Of course, the actual time for shuffling is as short as possible.
Foreign companies can go through the bankruptcy reorganization, but domestic companies are difficult to go bankrupt due to various backgrounds, especially leading enterprises, which can be regarded as a benchmark enterprise to protect and not let him go bankrupt. Reorganization. Therefore, it is very difficult for Chinese companies to achieve phoenix nirvana through bankruptcy and reorganization.
Insufficient market demand, most Chinese companies adopt measures such as layoffs, production cuts, and production suspensions. It is easy to avoid bankruptcy protection. This phenomenon makes the company die for a long time. Before the last drop of blood is exhausted, that is, when the bank breaks the loan, our company will not fall down easily. The way of corporate financing is nothing more than listing, issuing, borrowing, and mortgage loans. When these roads are exhausted, the company can't get enough money, and it is the time for domestic PV companies to regain their new life.
China Securities Journal: In Zhejiang, local governments hope that some large companies can merge and restructure SMEs. Is this shuffling method effective?
Li Junfeng: The characteristics of the photovoltaic industry are that only enterprises with high technology, high efficiency and low cost have a living space, and most small enterprises tend to have high cost, low technical level and low efficiency. It is not meaningful for large-scale PV companies to merge these SMEs. Large-scale enterprises are not insufficiently equipped, but the PV industry has little market space and needs to eliminate a large part of backward production capacity.
Shuffle or prolonged war
China Securities Journal: Many domestic PV companies believe that the PV market will restart after the economy improves next year. Do you think the photovoltaic industry will pick up in the second half of next year?
Li Junfeng: The dilemma of the photovoltaic industry is not a market demand problem, but an over-investment in the photovoltaic industry and overcapacity. The domestic photovoltaic industry has spent 3-5 years walking the photovoltaic industry for 10 years, which makes photovoltaic companies have no way to go in the next 10 years.
Global PV demand is expected to be 22G watts in 2011, 30G watts in 2015 and 50G watts in 2020. But this year, the global PV module production capacity exceeds 50G watts, and the output exceeds 30G watts. The output of China's PV modules accounts for 60-70% of global production. This means that there will be a backlog of 8G-10G watts of PV modules this year, and excess capacity from over-investment needs to be cut.
China Securities Journal: How long do you expect the entire reshuffle process in the PV industry to last?
Li Junfeng: I think the reshuffle process in the photovoltaic industry will last for 3-5 years in China. Of course, the actual time for shuffling is as short as possible.
Foreign companies can go through the bankruptcy reorganization, but domestic companies are difficult to go bankrupt due to various backgrounds, especially leading enterprises, which can be regarded as a benchmark enterprise to protect and not let him go bankrupt. Reorganization. Therefore, it is very difficult for Chinese companies to achieve phoenix nirvana through bankruptcy and reorganization.
Insufficient market demand, most Chinese companies adopt measures such as layoffs, production cuts, and production suspensions. It is easy to avoid bankruptcy protection. This phenomenon makes the company die for a long time. Before the last drop of blood is exhausted, that is, when the bank breaks the loan, our company will not fall down easily. The way of corporate financing is nothing more than listing, issuing, borrowing, and mortgage loans. When these roads are exhausted, the company can't get enough money, and it is the time for domestic PV companies to regain their new life.
China Securities Journal: In Zhejiang, local governments hope that some large companies can merge and restructure SMEs. Is this shuffling method effective?
Li Junfeng: The characteristics of the photovoltaic industry are that only enterprises with high technology, high efficiency and low cost have a living space, and most small enterprises tend to have high cost, low technical level and low efficiency. It is not meaningful for large-scale PV companies to merge these SMEs. Large-scale enterprises are not insufficiently equipped, but the PV industry has little market space and needs to eliminate a large part of backward production capacity.
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