The inventory of the three major coal transit ports in the north has been falling for four consecutive weeks. The electricity and coal inventories of several provinces and cities have also been in a hurry. Among them, Hunan and other places are only used for half a month, approaching the “warning lineâ€. The flood season has not yet arrived, but in some places the temperature rises and the electricity consumption continues to rise... There are indications that the “coal shortage†has begun to disturb many places. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission issued an urgent notice requesting that the price of key contract coal in 2011 will remain unchanged in 2010, and it will not be able to increase prices in any form. The "Daily Economic News" reporter was informed that the price of key thermal coal contracts in 2010 was 520 yuan / ton. This price has a price difference of about 200 yuan/ton from the current market coal price. Analysts pointed out that after the price of thermal coal is "strictly controlled", related enterprises will reduce supply, and the situation of "coal shortage" will be intensified, and the decline in coal imports will pose a serious problem for power supply this summer. challenge. Power plant and port stock coal fell across the board "Daily Economic News" reporter learned that the current local coal in Hubei has fallen to a "warning line" of 1.6 million tons, can only guarantee two weeks of power generation. Another group of data shows that as of March 27, Huazhong Power Grid's total coal inventory fell to 9.14 million tons, of which Hunan's thermal coal supply situation is the most severe, 540,000 tons of coal can only be used for 4 days, lower than the warning line. At present, Hunan Power Grid has an impact on power generation capacity of about 8 million kilowatts due to coal shortage, low coal quality, low hydropower head and overhaul of the unit. Based on this, Hunan Province has implemented orderly electricity measures on March 21, with a maximum daily electricity consumption of about 1.2 million kilowatts and a maximum daily electricity consumption of 11 million kilowatt hours. On March 29, Shaanxi Province released the economic situation in the first quarter of this year, saying that the province's thermal coal inventory was 702,000 tons, down 30% year-on-year. State Grid Northwest Power Grid Corporation actively reported to the State Grid Corporation, reduced the transmission of Shaanxi power, and coordinated and organized the rich power of the western provinces to support Shaanxi. At the same time, the coal stocks of major ports are also declining. As of March 31, the coal inventory of Qinhuangdao Port was 7.282 million tons, down 1.33% on a week-on-week basis, and the 1.97 million tons of coal stocks had fallen back from the beginning of the month; Coal inventories were 1.56 million tons, down 23.15% from the beginning of the month; the coal inventory of Guotou Caofeidian Port fell by 500,000 tons to 1.97 million tons from the beginning of the month. The stocks of the above three northern coal transit ports have fallen for four consecutive weeks, with an overall decline of 16.7%. Overseas coal merchants suspend offer to China According to the "Daily Economic News" reporter, with the tight supply of domestic coal, some Australian suppliers of thermal coal and coking coal have suspended their offer to Chinese importers. Industry analysts believe that after the earthquake in Japan, energy import demand accelerated, which may affect China's coal imports in the third quarter of this year. According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, China's coal imports in February were only 6.76 million tons, a decrease of 47.6%. This figure is the lowest monthly import since April 2009. Coal imports in Guangdong Province in February have fallen by about 50% compared with the same period of last year, which has directly led to a significant decline in coal inventories in Guangdong Province. Internationally, the Japanese nuclear crisis and the turbulent situation in the Middle East and North Africa have begun to spread to the world energy market, and coal prices have skyrocketed. International oil prices continued to rise on the 4th. At the close of the day, oil prices in the New York and London markets rose again by a two-and-a-half-year high. Swiss mining giant Xstrata and Japan China Electric Power Co., Ltd. signed a supply contract for the current fiscal year (starting on April 1st). The London-listed Xstrata will supply the latter with coal for coal-fired power plants at a price of $130 per ton, up 32.6% from the $98 per ton price in 2010-2011. According to reports, the latest contract price is also higher than the historical record of $125 per ton in 2008-2009, setting a price benchmark for Asia that is eager for energy. Credit Suisse Commodity Analyst said that, to some extent, the contract exceeded market expectations. The contract price reflects the tight supply of high-calorie coal consumed by Asian power plants, mainly due to the harsh weather in Australia and the growing overall demand in the past six months, especially in China and India. In any case, this price is not competitive in China. Comprehensive cost, the import cost of various types of coal has been more expensive than domestic enterprises from Shanxi to tens of dollars to hundreds of yuan, and some companies have basically imported coal. Stagnant. Coal-electricity linkage is stranded. The above-mentioned various situations show that on the one hand, the supply of coal in some provinces and cities is tight, and on the other hand, the NDRC does not allow the price increase of key thermal coal contracts. This makes the thermal power plant and the coal supplier face a dilemma. Who will resolve this contradiction? Dong Hong Securities analyst Zhou Hongyu told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that the coal price negotiations have been facing difficulties, and the price of coal has become a headache for coal companies and power companies. He believes that under the current high inflation situation, the coal-electricity linkage mechanism will not be able to make a trip for the time being. What's more, electricity prices are related to people's livelihood and cannot rise easily. He explained that the price of coal has already been marketized, and the price of electricity is still regulated by the state. At present, although the price of key contract coal is not allowed to increase, the company may increase the price in disguise by supplying coal with low combustion value. The NDRC specifically pointed out that it is not possible to increase prices in any form. Some insiders also pointed out that since the current contract price and the market coal price have a price difference of about 200 yuan / ton, the locked-in price in the key contract coal is getting less and less, and the redemption rate is getting lower and lower. According to the report of the Energy Policy Research Center of the China Energy Research Association, the actual implementation price of the key thermal coal contract in 2011 will be raised by 30 yuan/ton on the basis of 2010. If the electricity price cannot be effectively channeled at that time, the loss of the thermal power enterprise may further expand. From 2003 to 2004, 2006 to 2007, and early 2010, there were different levels of “coal shortageâ€, “electricity shortage†and “oil shortage†in various parts of China. Han Xiaoping, chief information officer of China Energy Network, believes that this is caused by the stagnation of power reform and the inability of both parties to conduct effective transactions.
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