Ceramics companies are faced with the "three-fold" test

At the beginning of this year, the national real estate and fixed asset investment policies may face increasingly fine-tuning signals. Starting from late January, nine ministries and commissions of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development including the United Nations Ministry of Land Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission have inspected the real estate control effectiveness of local governments, focusing on inspecting real estate-related regulations. The implementation of the policy will form phased opinions before this year's **. In April, the relevant policies for real estate regulation were formally implemented.

Under the circumstances that the Central Government has repeatedly made heavy-handed control over real estate, the trend of the Chinese real estate market in 2010 has been exposed. In the first quarter, housing prices will also show a rising trend, and the effect of the regulation will begin to appear from the second quarter. This year's real estate policy will also show a "loose before the tight" trend, while the housing prices are relatively reasonable or a slight increase in the second and third-tier cities of real estate policies will be appropriately relaxed. In addition to regulating the real estate market, in order to further ease inflationary pressures, the country will also strictly control investment in fixed assets this year, tightening the mainstream trend of monetary policy.

The macroeconomic situation in 2010 is bound to have a significant impact on the development of the entire ceramic industry this year. This influence will focus on three aspects.

The second and third tier cities grow into the core

Policy: appropriate liberalization of real estate policies in second- and third-tier cities where housing prices are relatively reasonable or not significant.

Performance: The further release of rigid demand in second and third-tier cities will become a new growth point for the property market this year.

Impact: The overall decline in the channel of the ceramic industry. Driven by the second- and third-tier housing market, the fastest-growing ceramics companies will also appear in the region. The middle and low-end products with high performance-price ratio will become the darling of the market, and some economic and durable high-end products are also expected to appear hot.

Ceramics production capacity expansion is cold

Policy: Increase the real estate regulation and control of first-tier cities and real estate hotspots, and curb the excessive growth of housing prices. The government funding guarantee will be invalid.

Performance: With the rational decline of the housing market, the demand for building materials in first-tier cities will gradually shrink.

Impact: In 2009, the booming ceramic building capacity expansion was cold. Recently, the State Ministry of Finance is taking the lead in formulating documents to standardize local pledges of guarantee commitments. The important one is that the "guarantee letter" of local governments and officials is invalid. Apart from normative guarantees, the relevant authorities may also strictly control the total amount of local government debt. If the documents are announced as scheduled, the lifeline of the expansion of the ceramic production capacity will be directly tampered with from the investment channels, and the expansion of production capacity will become a reality.

Low-end product market is worrying

Policy: "Building materials to the countryside"

Performance: Although the implementation measures for “building materials to the countryside” have not been introduced, the entire pan-home industry, including the ceramics industry, has tightened its nerves. We hope that by this time, we will continue to channel the channels to the third and fourth tier markets, not only to harvest policies. Good, but also to achieve a big expansion from the brand and market layout.

Impact: Throughout the ceramics industry, leading companies such as Dongpeng and Xinzhongyuan have already made deployments. Through the forms of production and marketing, the products have gradually penetrated into the third and fourth line markets. In the traditional sense, the low-end products with no brand and no after-sales products were gradually replaced by the low-end products of the brand enterprises, and the market space was further compressed. In 2010, this trend will be further continued. The low-end products that occupy low prices for a long time in the rural market may face a life-and-death battle, and the classification of the entire industry will also accelerate.