Abstract In the first quarter of 2014, the economic operation of the machine tool industry showed a state of “low pressure operationâ€. Affected by the shrinking market demand, the competition of foreign brands, the rising of factor costs and the continuous low-end operation, the quality of the operation of industrial enterprises has declined, and the operation...
In the first quarter of 2014, the economic operation of the machine tool industry generally showed a state of “low pressure operationâ€. Affected by the shrinking market demand, foreign brand competition, factor cost rising and continuous low-level operation, the operating quality of industrial enterprises has declined, operational difficulties have increased, and upward momentum has been insufficient.     I. Economic performance of the whole industry
    According to the economic operation data of the National Bureau of Statistics from January to March 2014, the main business income of the whole industry was 185.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. Among them, metal cutting machine tools were 34.4 billion yuan, up 7.7% year-on-year; metal forming machine tools were 17.1 billion yuan, up 12.3% year-on-year.
    The profit rate of the main business income of the whole industry, the proportion of accounts receivable to the main business income and the asset-liability ratio were 5.3%, 46.8% and 53.9% respectively; the above three indicators of metal cutting machine tools were 2%, 77.8% and 61.7 respectively. %; the three indicators of metal forming machine tools are 5.2%, 55.8% and 54.4% respectively.
    The loss-making enterprises in the whole industry accounted for 17.5%, the loss of state-owned holding companies accounted for 52.7%, and the losses of privately-held enterprises accounted for 13.4%. Among the eight sub-sectors, the largest loss is metal cutting machine tools, accounting for 30.4% of the loss-making enterprises; its holdings in China accounted for 62% of losses.
    Fixed-asset investment in the user industry, which is associated with the machine tool industry, is slowing or negative. Among the total planned investment, the automobile industry increased by 8.2% year-on-year, the internal combustion engine industry decreased by 2.1%, and the construction machinery industry decreased by 3.7%. In the year, the purchase of equipment and tools in fixed assets was completed. The automobile industry increased by 5.6% year-on-year, the internal combustion engine industry decreased by 1.2%, and the construction machinery industry decreased by 30.4%.
    In summary, although the main business income of machine tool industry maintained an increase of 11.7%, under the double squeeze of external investment downturn and internal factor cost increase, the industry economic operation pressure increased and the operation quality declined.
    Second, the key link to the economic operation of enterprises
    The key data of China Machine Tool & Tool Industry Association's key contacts in the first quarter of 2014 reflected that the economic operation showed a downward trend. The sales revenue of key contact enterprises decreased by 1.9% year-on-year; metal cutting machine tools decreased by 6% year-on-year; metal forming machine tools increased by 7.5% year-on-year. The proportion of companies with a decline in product sales revenue and industrial product sales value indicators decreased by more than 50%. The proportion of enterprises with finished products inventories increased by 50.7%. The proportion of companies with a year-on-year decline in total profit was 50.7%.
    Market demand continued to be sluggish, with both new orders and on-hand orders showing negative year-on-year growth. New orders decreased by 6.9% year-on-year, and orders in hand decreased by 11.4% year-on-year. The output of metal processing machine tools increased by 0.8% year-on-year. Among them, the output of gold cutting machine tools decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, and the output of forming machine tools increased by 9.7%.
    The loss side remained at a high level, and the total profit continued to decline. The loss-making enterprises in the whole industry accounted for 47.2%, and the total profit decreased by 9.9%. Among them, the gold cutting machine tool decreased by 613.2%, and the forming machine tool increased by 2.3%.
    Third, the import and export situation
    In the first quarter of 2014, the overall trend of imports and exports showed a trend of “first drop, then rise and stabilizeâ€. The total import and export volume of machine tools and tools was US$6.05 billion, down 1.13% year-on-year. Among them, exports were 2.361 billion US dollars, up 13.38% year-on-year; imports were 3.689 billion US dollars, down 8.61% year-on-year; the trade deficit was 1.328 billion US dollars, down 32.07%.
    Affected by the decline in the RMB exchange rate and the economic recovery of major international economies, exports have shown a trend of recovery. The main commodity sectors for export are cutting tools, abrasives and metal cutting machines. Export enterprises are mainly private enterprises and wholly foreign-owned enterprises. The two exports are still the United States and Japan, Vietnam surpasses Germany to become the third, and Germany retreats to fourth. Among them, the United States was $122 million, down 3.99% year-on-year; Japan was $82 million, up 38.55% year-on-year; Vietnam was $66 million, up 234.09% year-on-year.
    Imports continued to decline due to the decline in fixed asset investment, the slowdown in the development of the user industry and the localization of foreign brands. The main commodity sectors imported are metal cutting machines, metal forming machines and numerical control devices. The top three sources of imports are Japan, Germany and Taiwan. Japan fell 8.12% year-on-year, Germany fell 21.49% year-on-year, and Taiwan, China grew 9.03% year-on-year.
    The products imported from Japan and Taiwan are mainly CNC equipment, parts, fixtures and cutting tools. At the same time, Japan's significant rebound in the first quarter was mainly due to the stimulus of the Japanese government's quantitative easing monetary policy; while Taiwan's machine tool products in Taiwan continued to rise slowly with the combination of higher cost performance and ECFA trade preferential policies.
    Fourth, recent forecast
    For the operation forecast of the machine tool industry in 2014, affected by the national macroeconomic policies and market demand, the downward pressure is large, the internal motivation is insufficient, and the overall performance is the fluctuation operation in the low range, and the operation of the sub-industry will be intensified. Happening.
    â—The metal cutting machine tool industry has been in a state of “small profit or negative profit†under the sluggish market demand and shrinking product sales. The financial pressure of the enterprise is large, and the loss of operation quality has caused the loss of the company to increase, which has increased the industry’s “stopping and stabilizingâ€. "The difficulty."
    ◠The completion of monthly economic indicators of metal forming machine tools in the industry is not volatile, and the overall operation of the industry is relatively stable. Therefore, in the absence of large fluctuations in the market, this year will maintain a "steady progress" trend.
    V. Suggestions
    (1) Strengthen the monitoring of the operation of the industry, and conduct early-warning monitoring of industries that may have economic stalls and increase losses and increase unemployment, so as to timely adjust relevant policies to avoid adverse impacts on industry operations and transformation and upgrading.
    ( 2) “Freely balance and prudently implement†the free trade agreements, foreign investment and preferential policies that affect the operation and development of the industry, and strengthen communication with industry associations and enterprises.
    ( 3) To balance the accounts receivable, standardize the financial environment and order, effectively reduce the financial cost of the real economy, and promote the transformation and upgrading of the real economy and healthy development.
    ( 4) Regulate the state financial investment management and effect evaluation, and encourage financial funds to purchase self-owned brand equipment in areas related to national economic base and industrial security. Give play to the role of market allocation resources to avoid causing funds to idling and stimulating external demand.
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